作者：張舒
Apple itself may not have expected that its foldable screen phone, which its fans have been waiting for for seven years, would turn the digital world upside down with controversy less than half a month after its release.
In the early morning of September 10, Apple’s first foldable screen phone iPhone Duo (Duo for short) was officially unveiled. In the demonstration video, the smooth animation when the phone is unfolded, the instant picture changes and the flat and translucent screen made countless Apple fans cheer, “After waiting for so many years, it is finally released. This is a must-buy.”
But surprises always come mercilessly. Just a few days after the release, Duo’s famous overturning scenes have come one after another.
On September 15, Apple’s new CEO John Ternus personally held Duo during an interview on the red carpet of the Emmy Awards. Judging from the video screen, the internal screen of the mobile phone has an obvious gray and foggy effect, which is not as good as the picture quality of the demonstration video. Netizens complained that it “comes with full privacy protection”.
On September 16, Tim (Pan Tianhong), a well-known digital blogger and founder of Film and Television Hurricane, released an iPhone Duo review. He said in the video that the temperature of the iPhone Duo’s body was controllable under normal operation, but after he continuously recorded 4K 60-frame video for about 3 minutes, the machine became so hot that he could hardly hold it.“It’s cool on one side and you can fry eggs on the other.”
Later, Tim tried to bend the Duo in the opposite direction. He emphasized that he did not bend it forcefully, but in the picture recorded by the video equipment, the phone had an obvious screen flicker. He believes that, overall, consumers should give priority to candy bar machines that are launched earlier.
This operation brought Duo to the forefront again. Li Nan, the founder of Numiao Technology and former Meizu CMO, issued an article questioning the rationality of this “reversal” test: “What product function is it for to use? Is it the traffic and topic functions?” Related topics quickly became hot searches.
Netizens in the comment area immediately started arguing. Some people believed that a device starting at 15,999 yuan should withstand a certain degree of misoperation. “Breaking it backwards is equivalent to putting the screen of a mobile phone down on a sofa and being sat on it, or putting it in a pocket and being squeezed. It is quite common.” Opponents believed that in normal use scenarios, “Why does the folding screen have to be broken backwards?”
On the day the iPhone Duo was released, Apple’s stock price fell nearly 2% during the session, and its market value evaporated by approximately US$90 billion. In just a few days, the mood of fruit fans has gone on a roller coaster with controversies of all sizes, sliding from enthused to terrified.
Apple is 7 years late,
Is it really overturned?
Since the release of iPhone Duo, technology bloggers at home and abroad have flocked to it. The tone of the first batch of reviews is “amazing but hesitant”. Countless Apple fans have repeatedly struggled with this, which is more worrying than being greedy late at night.
The Verge, an American technology media, praised Duo, saying that the screen opens and closes smoothly and the creases on the inner screen are “almost invisible.” Mashable, one of the world’s largest blogs, also praised the nano-textured matte inner screen and under-screen camera design, saying that the visual immersion is far superior to competing products.
But let go of these flattering words and return to daily scenes. Duo’s severe fever and “fog-proof privacy” situation are almost impossible to ignore.Since 2019″折疊屏“Since the first year of the year, Samsung, Huawei, and Xiaomi have entered the game. Apple has been late for so many years. Why can’t it get around the old problem of folding screens?
All the difficulties have to go back to the “soul” of the folding screen, the hinge. The hinge of a folding screen mobile phone is like the joints of the limbs of the human body, which directly determines its crease depth, opening and closing flexibility, heat dissipation method and maintenance cost.
In order to achieve precise hovering feel and stress dispersion, Apple used more than 100 precision parts to assemble Duo’s hinge. The more parts there are, the higher the precision required. The error between the screen, hinge and body must be controlled within a very small range, otherwise it will appear as deeper creases, uneven opening and closing resistance, and even affect the product life.
This kind of design is amazing in the laboratory, but when put into mass production, it becomes a yield nightmare. The yield rate of Foxconn’s Duo assembly is only over 60%, while Apple’s mass production threshold is a yield rate of 85%. In other words, for every 10 Duos produced, 3 and a half will fail Apple’s own quality inspection.
According to Apple’s current quality standards, it may take half a year or even a year for the overall machine yield rate to reach a mature level. This has also directly led to severe restrictions on production capacity. The initial supply of iPhone Duo is quite tight. Analysts have lowered their 2026 shipment forecast from 7 million units to 6 million units.
The design of the hinge also directly affects the screen crease and heat dissipation, forcing Apple to make compromises.
Regarding screen creases, Apple executives showed considerable restraint in interviews. They did not claim that the iPhone Duo “eliminates” creases, but relied on the nano-texture surface to reduce reflection and reduce the visibility of the creases. However, optical reflections will also affect the clarity and contrast of the screen, causing the entire screen to “fog” together.
In terms of heat dissipation, it is not new for Apple products to generate heat, but what is special about Duo is the location and inescapability of heat generation.
Inside the Duo body, the hinge and dual-screen structure occupy a large amount of space, while the computing power and signal modules are highly concentrated in a small area under the camera. The available area of the heat dissipation module is much smaller than that of a candy bar machine. For comparison, the iPhone 18 Pro series tested at the same site has been upgraded with a large-area VC vapor chamber. After high-load operation, the temperature is only about 1 degree Celsius higher than the previous generation.
For Apple, this is already an embarrassing situation. Brands such as Huawei, Samsung, OPPO, and Honor have iterated on multiple generations of products on the folding screen track, and have even achieved “almost invisible” visual and tactile folding. Apple, which was seven years late, has become a chaser in multiple dimensions.
Samsung Z Fold8.
For consumers, iPhone Duo not only has an expensive initial price, but also has shortcomings in the core experience due to limited production capacity of core components.This means that they need to spend at least 15,999 yuan at their own expense to pay for Apple’s engineering trial and error and production capacity ramp-up process.
When the most loyal fruit fans begin to waver
“Buy early and enjoy early, buy late and enjoy discounts.” On the day of the release of each new generation of Apple’s new phones, despite the online scolding, long queues of Apple fans are inevitable to buy them.
In previous years, before new phones went on sale, “scalpers” from all over the world invested heavily in them, and the investment market was booming across the board.But this year, from forecasting agencies to bloggers’ reactions, Duo’s reviews have been mixed. Even die-hard Apple fans have expressed hesitation, “I don’t want to buy it after reading the reviews.”
On the day Duo was released, Apple’s market value evaporated by approximately US$90 billion, and its stock price closed slightly down 0.28% the next day. The “scalper” market is playing out a different scene. Nearly 1 million people have made reservations to buy Duo, and the transaction price of the obtained items is as high as 49,999 yuan. There are even “scalper” orders at a sky-high price of 99,000 yuan on the second-hand platform, and some people even plan to borrow millions of yuan to stock up on goods.
In fact, Apple’s new products in recent years will face polarized reputations but still have good sales. The iPhone 18 Pro series sold 322,800 units on its first day of sale, which was 130% of the same period of the previous generation. The criticism has never really affected Apple’s sales.
But this time, things have changed. In the past, iPhone 12 mini被說“The small-screen audience is not that big to begin with.”The iPhone Air sacrifices the ultra-wide-angle and telephoto lenses for thinness and lightness, which is more like a misalignment between the product and the needs of consumers.
But Duo’s shortcomings are closer to functional flaws. Recording videos, playing games, and opening multiple applications at the same time are all common uses. The bumps and bumps in life make Duo like a fragile vase.The Apple model that has controversial reputation but good sales faces its first real test with Duo.
What is not optimistic is that the predictions of Duo sales by various well-known institutions show rare differences. TrendForce predicts shipments of about 5 million units in 2026, with a market share of 24.8%. Morgan Stanley predicts annual sales of up to 20 million units. Goldman Sachs maintains forecasts of 14 million units in the baseline scenario and 35 million units in the optimistic scenario.
In the past, institutions’ sales forecasts for Apple’s new products usually fluctuated within a range of up to 20%, while Duo’s forecast span was as high as seven times. Analysts have no definite answer to the question of whether Apple fans will pay for the 16,000 yuan first-generation folding screen.
Counterpoint Research 折疊屏Smartphone market forecast.
In Tom’s Guide readers’ vote, 59% of users chose Samsung Z Fold8, and only 26% chose iPhone Duo. The media pointed out that Samsung Z Fold8 is thinner and lighter (about 44 grams difference), cheaper (about 100 US dollars), supports three-application split screen, and has been iterated for 8 generations.
TechRadar’s reviewer admitted, “I have never been so eager for an iPhone, but $2,000 has put me off.” He believes that Duo is “a toy for early adopters” rather than a mainstream machine for the masses.
According to British media reports, Forrester analysts’ warnings were even sharper. “Duo may become a high-priced decoration, bringing value to the brand image but failing to bring substantial business growth.” He also pointed out that it may follow the path of Vision Pro, which was at its peak when it debuted, with a price but no market.
A large number of netizens said, “Duo is double the Air at best, why is it so expensive?” “When will the price drop, buy it again when the price drops?” Some netizens settled their accounts on the spot, “The service life of the folding screen is too short. It will cause various problems after two years of use. How many people can accept the holding cost of 5,000 to 6,000 a year?”
Another reader of Tom’s Guide投票。
iPhone Duo is not only Apple’s first foldable screen phone, but also John Ternus’ first answer after taking over as CEO. A hardware engineer who has been working at Apple for 25 years has taken over as the leader. Whether it is die-hard Apple fans or investors in the market, they are looking forward to him using his engineering thinking to bring about breakthroughs.
Ternus said in the interview that Apple’s “lateness” is because the company will not blindly follow the trend. The products it launches always focus on user needs and emphasize experience first: “We don’t want to simply put two mobile phones together… We want to create a large-screen experience that ‘feels right’.”
However, some media analysts said that if the Duo usage scenario is viewed as a regular iPhone superimposed on an iPad mini, the pricing logic of 15,999 yuan will be much smoother, which means that Apple is just making a simple addition between existing products. Some analysts bluntly said, “Give me half the iPhone Duo for half the price.”
Apple fans’ expectations for Apple are a transcendent experience. When Apple, which is late, brings this embarrassing blockbuster new product,Apple fans either admit that Apple has not done its best, or convince themselves that “it is normal for the first-generation products to be imperfect,” and then empty their wallets unwillingly.
Duo, as Apple’s first-generation folding machine, may not have bad sales, but Apple’s default trust and right to speak on reasonable pricing are being loosened.
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