As El Niño continues soaring to unrivaled heights, meteorologists are preparing for a winter in the United States that could be just as extraordinary – raising expectations for one of the stormiest seasons in history.
But forecasters are preparing for different versions of busy, depending on their region.
The country should start to more directly feel the long-anticipated effects of this El Niño in November, as it powers up the subtropical jet stream – which will help fuel potentially dangerous storms, especially from California to Florida and up along the East Coast.
Some of these storms will be nuisance-level events, while others have the potential to be much more serious. There will be much higher than normal risks for coastal and freshwater flooding, as well as severe thunderstorms – with threats lasting through the first quarter or half of 2027.
The Washington Post surveyed meteorologists across key regions to find out how they’re helping to prepare their audiences for the season ahead.
An exceptionally active Florida winter
WFLA-TV meteorologist Jeff Berardelli, based in Tampa, vividly recalls the February 1998 Central Florida tornado outbreak, during another very strong El Niño. He was on the air live as the devastating storms unfolded, part of what he recalls as an “extremely hectic” and “very unusual” Florida winter.
He’s expecting another exceptionally active Florida winter this time around, with frequent fronts and rain.
He sees meaningful potential for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, but is unsure whether the atmosphere will repeatedly become unstable enough to resemble the destructive 1997-98 season.
“Either way, it will be one of the most active winters in Florida history,” he said.
Farther south, Fort Myers-based meteorologist Matt Devitt shared Berardelli’s concern, saying locals are most worried about the potential for severe weather this winter.
Devitt also pointed to the deadly 1998 tornado outbreak and January 2016, during another potent El Niño, when Fort Myers received more than a foot of rain – compared with about 2 inches in a typical January – and a strong tornado struck nearby Cape Coral.
According to data from The Post’s El Niño tracker, there’s a 75 percent chance that Miami’s winter rainfall reaches the top 5 percent of historical values – a risk that’s 15 times higher than normal. In Tampa, that risk is 13 times higher – an exceptional departure from the norm.
A storm-filled East Coast winter
Last winter was the coldest in a decade or more for swaths of the East Coast.
WBZ-TV meteorologist Eric Fisher, based in Boston, said he is not expecting a repeat performance.
“We expect a much milder winter than last,” he said.
Though that doesn’t mean the storms won’t come.
During El Niño winters, a large area of high pressure typically sprawls across Canada and the northern U.S., helping to deflect the polar jet stream – and lobes of the polar vortex – farther north.
During the strongest El Niño events on record, Boston has never recorded a snowier- or colder-than-average winter.
“That doesn’t mean it’s impossible, but history tells us it’s quite unlikely,” Fisher said.
This will probably contribute to a slow start to ski season across New England, and Fisher is pushing his trips toward the back half of the season.
Milder air would also quickly melt any snow that falls.
But a lack of snow doesn’t necessarily mean a lack of storms.
The same active jet stream pattern that will zip above Florida is also forecast to help spawn around two times more strong storms than normal along the East Coast.
For New England, that could accelerate a sharp pendulum swing away from the drought that has gripped much of the region for the past two years.
“I’ve been telling people that we’re about to stop asking for more rain and will start begging for it to stop raining soon enough,” Fisher said.
In New York City, WPIX meteorologist Pat Cavlin is also keeping his viewers plugged into this storm risk, following a damaging nor’easter in late September.
“Our main concern across the Northeast is for a higher frequency of nor’easters, which can have substantial impacts on our beaches and coastal towns,” Cavlin said.
That would spell trouble in the Northeast, as well as the stretch from the Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas.
It could also elevate the chances for a larger snowstorm in the nation’s capital.
Precipitation in D.C. typically runs above normal during the strongest El Niño winters, but the availability of cold air is often the biggest limiting factor for snowfall, according to Capital Weather chief meteorologist Jason Samenow.
“Despite leaning toward less snow than normal overall, we believe the chances of at least one blockbuster snowstorm may be somewhat higher than usual,” Samenow said.
Climate model data points to widespread below-average snowfall during November and December in the region, before snow chances increase in the new year.
For the West, destructive storms and drought relief
Parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado have been hit by destructive storms in the last week, prompting a disaster emergency declaration in southwestern Colorado. And the outlook suggests more storms are coming.
Across the West, the highest odds for wetter-than-normal conditions this winter extend from California to New Mexico, covering several states that have been hit hard by drought – and offering some hope for relief in the Colorado River Basin. But not all drought-stricken areas are as favorably positioned.
One state dealing with some of the nation’s worst drought conditions is Colorado. But El Niño doesn’t guarantee relief there.
“Fresh off of our worst snow season in modern history, expectations are sky high. The reality, though, is that Colorado sits on the fringe of primary El Niño-related impacts,” said KUSA meteorologist Chris Bianchi, based in Denver.
Snow prospects are strongest in southwestern Colorado, while much of the rest of the state might have to wait for a more active stretch from midwinter into spring. That could bring several significant storms to the mountains and Denver – including the main ski areas – but confidence remains limited.
“Impacts for most of Colorado’s high country are fairly 50-50,” Bianchi said.
To the south in drought-affected New Mexico, Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb expects a stormy winter with heavier rainfall events, with above- to well-above-average snowfall in the northern part of the state.
But farther to the north, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects developing and worsening drought conditions across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies – areas that suffered through a severe wildfire season this year.
Meanwhile, in California, the potentially serious consequences of this record El Niño have been widely discussed.
That includes the potential for destructive storms, especially from January to March, that bring a much higher than normal risk for widespread and significant coastal and freshwater flooding, as well as strong winds.
In a recent live-stream broadcast, data presented by climate scientist Daniel Swain showed how the most extreme forecast scenarios currently show three to four years of rainfall in one winter season across Southern California.
Swain also shared a prediction of California coastal water temperatures that could reach a “record-shattering” 10 degrees Fahrenheit above average this winter.
“That will literally add more water vapor to storms right as they are arriving, potentially making atmospheric rivers stronger,” Swain said.
A milder Midwest winter with less snow
“We’re expecting a slow start to winter this year,” said WJW meteorologist Scott Sabol, based in Cleveland.
That’s unlike last winter, which started off unusually snowy and cold for the first time in years.
After Lake Erie reached about 96 percent ice cover in February, the highest in a decade, Sabol expects an “ice-free” lake this winter.
While that should allow for warmer conditions, the open water would also supply more moisture, potentially boosting lake-effect snow later in the season if and when colder air passes over the lake.
NOAA’s seasonal temperature outlook favors above-average temperatures from North Dakota to Ohio, including cities such as Minneapolis, Chicago and Detroit.
“Coming off of the coldest winter in over a decade, in general, this winter will be much easier to handle, both with temperatures and the lack of snow, along with no sustainable snow cover,” Sabol said.
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