Stock prices are soaring and profits are about to fall! Mango super media is working hard, Li Na

摘要：65 billion market value vs 2.34 million deductions (welcome to follow Girlfriend Finance)

Written by | Sister Mi

This is the 1858th original article by @best friend finance

In the first week of November 2026, the most exciting story in the A-share media sector belongs to Mango Super Media. In four trading days, it rose nearly 50%. The sentence “I draw the ground as a prison, Li Na” is more effective than any brokerage research report.

On the other side of the stock price carnival, Mango Super Media’s fundamentals are a different story.

Just a week ago, Mango Super Media disclosed its third quarter report for 2026. Its net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters fell sharply by 79.01% year-on-year; of which only 11.55 million yuan was left in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 95.42%; non-net profit was deducted to 2.34 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 98.71%.

A content platform with a market capitalization of over RMB 65 billion has seen its share price rise by more than 50% in the past week, but its non-profit in one quarter was only RMB 2.34 million. Perhaps this is the most direct “metaphor” for the current A-share market environment?

01

Let’s talk about the lively part first.

This wave of hot searches on Mango Super Media comes from a conversation between Xu Fei and Li Na in a cliff cabin in its “Friends Later” program. “I draw the ground as a prison, Li Na” was cut into an emoticon package and spread on major social media. The number of views of the main topic on Douyin exceeded 5.7 billion.

There is even a variation of “I didn’t buy it, I drew the ground as a prison, Li Na” in the stock bar.

Screenshot source | Mango TV (Thank you!)

According to Yunhe Data, Sister Mi saw that the effective playback market share of “Later Friendship Period” on the first day of its launch on October 22 was 34.9%. Since then, it has climbed to more than 77%, becoming the first new variety show in 2026 to have a market share of more than 70%.

Against the background of the overall contraction of the variety show market, I have to say that this set of figures is too eye-catching.

But overall, the content of Mango is still a bit scientific. The third quarter statistics of Yunhe Data show that among the top 20 effective variety show broadcasts on the entire network, programs broadcast by Mango TV occupy 5 seats. “Escape Room Season 8” ranked second with 240 million views, and “Beat the Wind 2026” ranked eighth with 170 million views.

Among the top 20 long-form dramas on the Internet during the same period, Mango TV only had “Wild Dog Bones” on the list, ranking tenth with 460 million views.

Chart source｜Yunhe Data (Thank you!)

It can be seen that variety shows are Mango’s basic base, with strong new attractions and strong topics; but the real engine for the growth of long-form video members is drama series, which relies on the retention of long-form content.

There is no problem in continuing to live by relying on the N-generation TV series, but if the membership income cannot be supplemented by the drama series, the gross profit margin will not be recovered. Mango itself admitted that the pace of broadcasting of key film and television dramas has affected membership income.

02

Judging from the latest disclosed third quarter report, as Sister Mi said before, Mango Super Media is really a bit lame.

Operating income in the first three quarters was 9.351 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.18%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 213 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 79.01%. In the third quarter, the single-quarter revenue was 3.158 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.87% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was only 11.55 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95.42%. Non-net profit was deducted to 2.34 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 98.71%.

In its financial report, Mango Super Media attributed the decline in profits to three factors: declining membership income, rigid content costs, and changes in the fair value of investment targets.

Regarding membership income, the third quarter report did not disclose specific data. In the previous first half of 2026, Mango TV’s membership business revenue was 1.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%.

On the cost side, Mango’s operating costs in the first three quarters were 7.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%, accounting for nearly 80% of revenue, and the growth rate was nearly four times the revenue growth rate.

Among them, the single-quarter gross profit margin in the third quarter was 22.26%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.33 percentage points, but a month-on-month increase of 5.45 percentage points.

The month-on-month improvement shows that the rigid impact of content costs is not deteriorating linearly. However, on a year-on-year basis, gross profit margin is still more than 5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and cost pressure has not been relieved.

Changes in fair value are the most special of the three. The cumulative loss from changes in fair value of investment targets in the first three quarters was 126 million yuan, and the single-quarter loss in the third quarter was 73.11 million yuan.

CICC previously calculated that after adding back the fair value loss of 73.11 million yuan, the profit in the third quarter was 84.67 million yuan, still down 66.5% year-on-year. This means that even if all the drag on the investment side is removed, the profit of mango’s main business in the third quarter still shrank by more than two-thirds.

It is worth noting that in Mango’s consolidated income statement, the operating profit in the first three quarters was negative 29.9 million yuan, and the total profit was negative 21.48 million yuan. The company’s main business is actually below the profit and loss line.

Where did the net profit of 213 million come from? Mi Jie noted that its income tax expense during the period was -236.7 million. In other words, the profit on the book is mainly due to the difference in taxes.

03

The most valuable lies in the expectation, the thinnest lies in the present. This sentence may be applicable to Mango Super Media at this moment.

Li Na’s meme proves that Mango still has the ability to create public topics. In the content industry, this ability is scarce and valuable.

The playback curve and social communication data of “Later Friendship Period” are another demonstration of Mango Variety Show’s judgment and execution capabilities.

The gross profit margin in the third quarter rebounded by 5.45 percentage points from the previous quarter, which also shows that the cost side is not deteriorating in one direction, and there are signs of marginal improvement.

But the popularity of popular products and the repair of the profit statement are two different sets of clocks.

A phrase from a variety show can drive up market value. This is a typical example of emotional pricing for A-shares. But popularity does not equal income, let alone profit.

The advertising inquiries and member acquisitions generated by the program in November will not be recognized until the fourth quarter or even 2027; and the financial structure in which membership income has decreased by about 500 million yuan in half a year, and operating cost growth is close to four times the revenue growth rate, will not be automatically reversed due to the peak broadcast rate in a quarter.

The net profit attributable to the parent company of 213 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2026 is the lowest level in the past five years. This is a fait accompli given in the third quarterly report.

Therefore, this round of rise in Mango Super Media’s stock price is not just speculation, nor is it a fundamental reversal. It’s more like low expectations, hot hits, themes, and sector funds colliding together, and being concentrated on a target that has fallen for a long time.

Nowadays, the market is willing to pay 65 billion for a line of imagination, but at the end of the day, what you see is the cash on the statement. Come on, Li Na!

The article is for discussion and analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Charts not noted in this article are all from corporate disclosures and Oriental Fortune. Please note and thank you!