Where did the unsold mooncakes go?

Another set of FMCG network monitoring data also shows that,8月14日至9月13日，Sales drop at major stores45.17%, gift box sales dropped49.04%。

The time period and sample range of the two sets of data are not exactly the same, and they cannot be directly combined into total national sales, but they all point to the same thing: traditional stores and gift box channels are struggling to sell more.

There are also different calibers for estimating industry size.

iiMedia Consulting estimates,2025The national mooncake market size is approximately282.4billion, a year-on-year decrease5.9%; The annual summary of the China Baked Foods and Sugar Products Industry Association predicts,2025Annual industry cumulative sales decreased by approx.15%。

The difference between these two figures is not small and cannot be confused.

Qince consumption research data shows that this year, 60% of consumers choose to eat on their own50.4%, higher than giving gifts42.5%。

Mooncakes themselves are not a low-margin business.

廣州酒家2025The annual report shows that the mooncake series revenue16.52億元，毛利率53.31%。元祖股份“Chinese and Western pastry gift box”毛利率54.81%, but this income includes gift boxes such as moon cakes and rice dumplings;五芳齋月餅毛利率21.29%，桃李面包Moon cake gross profit margin29.98%。

Raw materials, production, channels and product structures are different, and gross profit margins naturally vary.

It is important to remember that gross profit is not net profit, and sales expenses, channel rebates and inventory losses have not yet been deducted.

Consumers start“繞開禮盒”

第一，There are fewer gift-giving scenes. In the past, mooncakes were sold not only for taste, but also for company benefits, business dealings and human relations.

After the implementation of national standards restricting excessive packaging, it is more difficult for layers of packaging to support high premiums, and consumers are becoming more and more calculating.

第二，Products fail to keep up with lifestyle. Traditional mooncakes tend to be sweet, oily, and heavy. There are eight in a box, and you’ll get tired of eating two at home.

For many young people, mooncakes are a holiday symbol, but not a daily necessity. The popularity of small portions, low sugar, fresh roasting and regional flavors shows that consumers have not left, but just want to eat easily and buy clearly.

第三，Sales are still too concentrated. The sales window for mooncakes is very short, but production plans must be determined months in advance. Companies are afraid of running out of stock, and channels are afraid of missing the peak season, so it is easy to overstock.

As the holidays approach, inventory pressure turns into discount pressure. High gross profit meets short cycle. On paper, it is a good business, but in operation, it is a test of demand forecasting and channel management.

Industry participants are not just time-honored brands. Listed companies such as Guangzhou Restaurant, Yuanzu, Wufangzhai, and Taoli Bread have food manufacturing and retail networks; local bakeries, catering brands, hotels, supermarkets’ own brands, and new e-commerce consumer brands are also competing for seasonal consumption.

The advantages of leading companies are brand, production and channels. Regional brands understand local tastes better, while freshly baked stores and membership stores rely on freshness and customization to find growth.

The market size is still tens of billions of yuan, but with many participants and strong seasonality, the scale does not mean that everyone can make money.

Unsold mooncakes

Where did you end up?

After the Mid-Autumn Festival, mooncakes are often the first to be lost.“節日禮品”的屬性。

People who were originally willing to pay for the festive atmosphere and decent gift-giving may not necessarily be willing to buy at the original price after the holiday. Dealers and supermarkets usually first find ways to reduce prices, switch to discount channels, or negotiate with brands to adjust, return or exchange goods.

How to deal with it depends onContractual agreements, product status and remaining shelf life。

Price cuts can bring back some cash, but the deeper the discount, the thinner the profit; if the inventory is held for a long time, it will also increase the pressure on warehousing and funding.

Donating does not mean that responsibility for food safety is also transferred away. Whether the recipient has storage conditions and whether it is properly preserved during transportation cannot be omitted.

Therefore, post-holiday mooncakes are not just“賣掉”或“扔掉”There are two outcomes: those that still meet the conditions can be digested at a discount; those that are suitable for donation must be stored and traced; those that do not meet food safety requirements must be disposed of in a standardized manner.

What really deserves attention is the flow of expired mooncakes.

Food safety regulations require that products that have deteriorated, exceeded their shelf life, or are recycled foods should be clearly marked or stored separately, and measures such as harmless treatment and destruction should be taken in a timely manner and recorded truthfully.

Expired food cannot be repackaged, resold with a different date, nor can it be reprocessed at will.

據China-Singapore Jingwei report,A staff member of a feed factory in Hebei told reporters that they recycle food products from expired and expired stocks all year round, including biscuits, moon cakes, etc., for use as feed raw materials, and promise not to enter the market again.

Recycling prices vary depending on fillings. Five-nut mooncakes are about 1,000 yuan per ton, and fruit fillings, bean paste and other flavors are about 800 yuan per ton. The reason why five-nut mooncakes are expensive is that they contain a large amount of melon seeds, peanuts and other nuts, which are high in nutrients and have dry fillings.

The recycling price is one thousand yuan per ton. Compared with the price of a box of mooncakes in the terminal market, which can easily reach hundreds of yuan, this figure is particularly eye-catching.

It means that the moment mooncakes fell from “cultural consumer goods” back to “raw materials”, their value shrank by more than 99%.

But don’t be too quick to ridicule. Compared with the chaos of “recycling mooncakes for reprocessing” and “renovating old fillings” that were exposed in the past years, today’s processing process has formed a relatively mature closed loop.

In the entire industry, production is determined by sales, diversion after holidays, and utilization as feed, at least in terms of compliance, it is much more standardized than in the past.

Problems in the mooncake industry

Mooncake sales are highly concentrated, and it is easy for companies to treat pre-holiday distribution as demand, and dealer purchases as consumers paying the bill.

But just because the goods have arrived at the channel, it doesn’t mean they’ve entered households; just because the dealers’ warehouses are full of gift boxes doesn’t mean the market is booming.

This year, some supermarkets have reduced their backlog by controlling the first batch of goods, replenishing goods in batches, and dynamically adjusting prices. This reflects the changing business logic: from pursuing full stocking before the holiday to more carefully observing the sales speed.

This is a real test question for brands and dealers.

Brands need to make their production plans closer to end demand, and cannot rely solely on high-end gift boxes to support scale; dealers must look at real sales and turnover, and cannot rely on“廠家發貨”誤當成“consumers buy”; Supermarkets and platforms should also carefully arrange purchases to avoid excessive purchases for display and promotion before the holidays.

Mooncakes will not quit the Mid-Autumn Festival just because they sell a few boxes less, but it is indeed time for the industry to recalculate this business. Consumers still want holiday flavors, they just don’t necessarily want bigger boxes, more expensive prices, and endless portions.

Who can rebalance taste, price, packaging and stocking, and who can save dealers from worrying about warehouses full of gift boxes after the holidays.

Mooncakes are never out of date

Obsolete is an old business

After writing so much data, I have to say something that comes from my heart.

Mooncakes cannot be sold, not because everyone is celebrating the Mid-Autumn Festival.

The report of the China Bakery and Confectionery Products Industry Association clearly points out that as the core carrier of Mid-Autumn Festival culture and an indispensable festival symbol, mooncakes’ rigid consumer demand has not changed.

What has changed? This is the logic of this business.

Those who buy it don’t eat it, and those who eat it don’t buy it.

A box of mooncakes goes from the factory to the consumer, passing through the general agent, provincial agent, and distributor. Each layer adds a price, and finally the consumer spends300The mooncakes bought for a piece may have an ex-factory price of only60塊。

The promotion wave on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival this year is at least a week earlier than in previous years, and the discounts range from 40% to 10% off.

Some wholesalers said that the profit margin of mooncake gift boxes has dropped to10%or so, but even if you lose money, you still have to sell it at a discount.“Otherwise, it will be rotten on your hands after August 15th.”。

This is the end of the old model.

But signs of a new paradigm are already emerging.

Mountain M member store定制月餅Sold out, long queues. LowGI, sales of low-sugar mooncakes bucked the trend and rose. Suzhou D Xiangcun surrounds lowGI, clean label, and new products from the same source of medicine and food are launched, and time-honored brands such as Gzhou Restaurant and L Xianglou are also following suit (This article does not constitute any consumer advice, hence the letters appearing in the name）。

The sales proportion of online e-commerce channels continues to increase, and Wufangzhai’s online sales proportion has reached50%左右。

What does this mean? It’s not that consumers don’t buy mooncakes anymore;“It’s expensive, oily, and sweet, and the packaging is more valuable than the cake.”of mooncakes.

Mooncakes are being made from a“社交貨幣”回歸到“食品”本身。

This return process will be painful because it has to squeeze out the channel bubble and brand premium accumulated in the past two decades. But for the industry, this is a good thing.

When the value of a box of mooncakes no longer depends on how beautiful the box is or how loud the brand is, but depends on whether the fillings are good, how much sugar is put in, and whether the price is realistic, then those who are truly serious about making products will win.

282The billion-dollar market will not disappear, it is just changing its way of life.

What do you think about the slowdown in mooncake sales this year?We look forward to your expressing your opinions in a civilized and rational manner in the message area.

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