Business Headlines No.144

2026-09-17 21:13

Interface News Reporter | Gao Jing

Interface News Editor | Zhang Hui Yang Yue

CATL (300750.SZ) is experiencing its darkest moment.

It has only been ten days since Li Auto (hereinafter referred to as Li Auto) announced that all series will use self-developed batteries, and CATL’s stock price has dropped to a new low for the year.It once fell below the 300 yuan mark, and has corrected more than 35% from the high point in May this year.The market value has evaporated by more than 700 billion yuan.

The trigger for the sharp drop in stock prices was a series of supply chain adjustments from downstream car companies.

Starting from 15:00 on September 7, the new generation MEGA can lock orders on the Ideal App.The battery will be changed to Ideal self-developed 5C battery. The Ideal i9, which was launched on September 16, will be the first batch to use CATL. After the production capacity ramps up, all batteries will be switched to self-developed batteries.

A more complete switch will occur in the fourth quarter, when the i6 launched will have noNingde era version.

“In the future, Ideal’s self-developed batteries will be fully installed on all our models.”

There were no rhetoric at the press conference, no public statements of “no more cooperation.” Ideal used a tweet to complete the role reset of CATL from the default option to the transition plan.

“The two of themThere must be a conflict.”

In response to this ideal “de-Ningdeization” action, many industry insiders expressed this to Jiemian News.

The two companies had a decade-long honeymoon period.

When Ideal was founded in 2015, CATL was its core battery supplier and remained so for ten years, from the Ideal ONE to the L series, until the 1 millionth Ideal exclusive battery pack rolled off the production line last year.

An analyst who has long observed the power battery industry told Jiemian News that the rift between the two companies had been buried during the honeymoon period.

The 5C Kirin battery installed in Lideal MEGA is one of the closest cooperation between the two parties. This battery was jointly developed by both parties, with more than 1,000 R&D personnel. It will be installed on vehicles and launched in March 2024. It is considered to be the industry’s first 5C overcharging solution.

但不久後, CATL’s 5C batteries have appeared on models of other car companies such as Ji Krypton.

Regarding this cooperation, there are different opinions in the industry. Some people think it is joint development, while others think it is ideal participation in the definition, Ningde時代Leading research and development, the ownership of intellectual property rights is difficult to clarify.

According to the aforementioned person,In July last year, the sales of the Lideal i8 were lower than expected. As a result, after the launch of the i6, when Lideal raised the demand for larger batteries, CATL did not respond positively.

As a result, i6 sales exceeded expectations, and Ideal did not launch dual-supplier diversion until November.Errors in production capacity forecasting, insufficient supply chain flexibility, and CATL’s production capacity allocation strategy have jointly led to delivery delays.

However, neither of them gave a clear response on the direction of the relationship between the two parties.

Ideal said in its official push that “self-developed batteries will not affect CATL’s position as the leading battery brand”; CATL has always remained silent.

Emotions are just the surface，Automobile companies develop self-developed batteriesThe deeper logic is that the relationship between them and power battery suppliers持續已久power game.

The battery is the component that accounts for the highest cost of the entire vehicle, accounting for about 30%-40%. Currently, there is a serious imbalance in profit distribution between vehicle manufacturers and power battery suppliers.

In the first half of this year, CATL’s net profit reached 43.3 billion yuan, approximately twice the total profit of 20 domestic mainstream listed vehicle companies during the same period. Ideal’s net loss during the same period was approximately 4 billion yuan, turning from profit to loss.

“The gross profit margin of suppliers is very high, so you will definitely wonder if I can squeeze out a little more gross profit margin.” Qiu Kaijun, founder of “Electric Vehicle Observer” analyzed to Jiemian News.

Profit is just one side of the coin，The flip side is battery dominance.

In the past few years, CATL has continued to increase brand building on the consumer side. The slogan “When choosing a tram, look at the battery and look for CATL” has repeatedly appeared on large screens in high-speed trains, airports and business districts.

A billboard placed by CATL on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai. Photographed by: Gao Jing

In May of this year, CATL launched an official battery inquiry channel. Consumers can enter the car model to confirm whether it is equipped with CATL batteries and whether it is a sole supply or a mixed supply.

This strategy works remarkably well. More and more consumers will take the initiative to ask when buying a car: Is it a CATL battery?

“That’s a successful business strategy.”Zhang Feng (pseudonym), a senior industry insider, commented, “But for car companies, the feelings are complicated.”

When consumers pay more attention to battery brands than to vehicle brands, car companies’ say in product definition and pricing is weakened.

“If it’s not from the CATL era, you wouldn’t dare to tell people what brand the battery is,” Zhang Feng said.

This anxiety defined by suppliers is not limited to consumers. The same goes for product definition.

Battery factories generally pursue economies of scale, supplying the same battery cells to as many car companies as possible to maximize production capacity utilization. Therefore, the previous cooperation model between car companies and battery manufacturers was mainly: battery manufacturers define products, and car companies adapt products.

This kind of cooperation model can meet the needs of car companies for rapid volume expansion to the greatest extent, but it also leads to the convergence of battery solutions for various models, making it impossible to highlight differentiated advantages. And when car companies adapt to universal battery solutions, they have to make compromises in vehicle design.

“誰都想Highlight the advantages of your own products.”

Mo Ke, founder of True Lithium Research, pointed out to Jiemian News,For example, models that pursue fast charging require special designs for battery thermal management, which requires sacrificing energy density; models that pursue battery life require high-energy-density batteries, which limits fast-charging performance.

It is difficult for large battery manufacturers like CATL to meet these differentiated needs one by one.Due to economies of scale, the order volume of most car companies is not enough for CATL to open a separate line for them.

二、Third-tier battery factories are different，“You have to give those two、Third line battery factory一個GWh of orders, they must be overjoyed.“Mo Ke said.

Car companies are beginning to shift to more“聽話”of suppliers.

In addition to ideals, Xiaomi Auto also makes a lot of noise about its self-developed batteries. RecentlyAll Xiaomi Pengcheng series launched are equipped with Xiaomi Longjia batteries.The CATL battery chosen previously for SU7 and YU7 is not used.

The self-developed battery modes of Ideal and Xiaomi are relatively similar, and both have chosen“Self-defined, second-tier OEM”的路徑, and the selected battery factories are highly overlapping, pointing to Sunwoda (300207.SZ) and China New Aviation (03931.HK).

They are all among the top ten companies in the world in terms of installed power battery capacity. Mo Ke pointed out that thisThe two second-tier battery manufacturers have strong momentum to attack the first-tier camp, and are willing to make price concessions and cooperate with car companies in customized development.

On September 17, Deng Jie, general manager of Sunwoda’s power system integration department, told Jiemian News in response to the company’s cooperation with Lideal and Xiaomi that the company would match high-quality resources to deeply participate in customer product development and carry out in-depth co-creation with vehicle manufacturers. “This is a point that OEMs are very concerned about.”

他提及, the core driving force for car companies to get involved in batteries is to create differentiation, be deeply involved in product definition, and strengthen product quality management.

Data source: China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance. Cartography: Interface News

The ideal “self-research” plan is to develop and manufacture the battery pack (PACK) by ourselves, and the battery cells will be manufactured by Sunwoda and China Innovation Aviation. To this end, it increased its capital by 2.65 billion yuan to Sunwanda Power, becoming the latter’s second largest shareholder.

The Longjia battery launched by Xiaomi Motors was also led by Xiaomi in the design and development of the battery pack. Zhongxinhang custom developed the electrochemical system and materials, and Sunwanda provided battery cell manufacturing.. Two battery companiesBoth have customized exclusive production lines for Longjia batteries.

It is not difficult to find that the so-called “self-developed batteries” of these two car companies are actually “de-Ningdeization” of battery cells.

The “De-Ningdeization” of automobile companies has been going on for many years, and it has already gone through三輪。

In 2022, then-PresidentChairman of GAC Group曾慶洪在World Power Battery ConferenceComplained: “Then am I not working for CATL now?”.

This complaint was the first shot in the “de-Ningdeization” campaign. Car companies such as GAC, Changan, Great Wall, and Geely have begun to support secondary suppliers and build their own battery factories.

In this round, second-tier battery manufacturers such as China Innovation Aviation have risen rapidly, and the CATL era is still strong.

2023-2024,“De-Ningdeization”Enter the second round，Upgrade from procurement strategy to systematic layout.

Changan releases self-developed battery brand“金鍾罩”, GAC Yinpai battery factory was completed and put into production, Jikrypton released self-developed“金磚電池”, by the beginning of 2024, there will be超15 car companies announced plans to develop self-developed battery packs or cells.

Judging from the actual results, in the endTo promote self-developed batteries into mass production, the mainIncluding GAC, Geely, etc.Car companies with strong capital and sales volume, but limited initial production capacity.CATL is still firmly ranked first in the market.

From 2025 to the present, “de-Ningdeization” has entered its third round. Car companies have begun to intervene in the definition and supply of batteries to varying degrees, and have substantially replaced CATL in their main models.

Information source: Compilation of public information Drawing: Li Yaoqi

The ambition of car companies to develop their own batteries will eventually face a fundamental problem – the barriers to battery manufacturing are far higher than imagined.

This is reflected in technology and manufacturing.

At the technical level, Ningde Times will invest 22.1 billion yuan in R&D in 2025, with a total of more than 90 billion yuan in the past ten years, and more than 20,000 R&D personnel. Last year, the total R&D expenses of Sunwoda and China New Aviation were only about 6.5 billion yuan.

“The other party’s R&D scale is ten times yours, and it has been this way for many years, so a technology premium is inevitable.“Zhang Feng said.

At the manufacturing level, Zhang Feng pointed out,Battery production is the same as chip production. We all know the process, but it is difficult to achieve a yield rate of over 99% in every step.

“There are barriers to battery production. Otherwise, why can’t Europe and the United States produce them, while only China, Japan and South Korea can?” Zhang Feng said.

Mo Ke believes that,In terms of battery stability and consistency, compared with CATL and BYD, “the gap between second-tier battery manufacturers is obvious.”

In this “self-research” competition, car companies also need to bear uncertainty.

廣汽埃安It once promoted China’s innovative aviation, but after the battery quality crisis broke out in some models, the battery supply focus of the new main models shifted back to CATL.

Geely was one of the first customers of Sunwanda Power, but later disputes arose due to battery quality problems in some models. Sunwoda’s latest Hong Kong stock prospectus has lost its major customers.

“There are dangers in idealizing this step. “

Zhang Feng believes, “When a product has no selling points in terms of electrification and intelligence,自研電池This is equivalent to turning the originally good electrification into a shortcoming. “

In addition, Ideal takes over product definition, standards and user responsibilities, but battery quality relies on Sunwoda and Zhongxinhang. If there is a problem, Ideal will be responsible for the entire process.

Self-research of batteries by car companies also means continuous investment in research and development, and the cost reduction effect must be based on sales volume. McKinsey once estimated that only when the car production scale reaches more than 500,000 units, or the battery production scale reaches more than 15 GWh, can car companies produce self-produced batteries to have a cost advantage.

So far, only BYD and Tesla have truly taken the road of self-developed batteries by car companies.

This game is far from over.

Qiu Kaijun believes that if car companies “de-Ningde”, in the long run, Ningde era will be greatly affected, especially the market share.

他指出，The technology of second-tier battery factories has been significantly improved, and car companies can make up for the battery cell gap through system integration. “It is no longer necessary to rely on CATL, and there are more choices.”

However, many interviewees told Jiemian News，The trend of car companies “de-CATLizing” will continue, but it will be difficult to shake CATL’s market position in the short term.

In Zhang Feng’s view,CATL’s market share is at risk of declining in the next two years, but not too quickly as it will continue to invest in R&D and advertising.

Ningwang’s power battery fundamentals remain solid. In the first half of the year, the domestic passenger car installed share reached 46.7%, and the production capacity utilization rate was approximately 95%. Among them, ternary power batteries accounted for 75.2%.

In other words, car companies have introduced two-power and three-power supplies for mid- and low-end models to reduce costs, but among high-end models and high-end user groups, CATL is still the first choice.

Recently, UBS, Lyon, JPMorgan Chase and other institutions have maintained a “buy” or “overweight” rating on the company.

Beyond the field of power batteries, CATL’s real trump card is its strategic transformation that it is promoting simultaneously on multiple battlefields.

這It is a far bigger narrative than “selling batteries to car companies”.

It has established cost and supply barriers in the upstream mining, midstream battery manufacturing, and downstream recycling industry chain;The growth curve of the energy storage business is steep enough, the growth rate in the first half of the year exceeded that of power batteries; the power exchange network that is stuck in future energy infrastructure is accelerating its expansion; electrification is gradually extending to low-altitude economy, ships, and data centers…

Capital markets are still skeptical of CATL, which is essentially an identity crisis。

CATL wants to upgrade from a battery supplier to an energy infrastructure operator, but it is still trapped in the web of customer relationships. Its status as a “strong supplier” has contributed to its performance and also brought about the loosening of customers.

In the manufacturing field, TSMC’s symbiotic relationship with its customers was once praised by Harvard professor Michael Porter as a model of industrial division of labor—deep binding and mutual achievement. How to handle this relationship will be an urgent constraint that CATL needs to resolve when it transitions to an infrastructure operator.