The “Great Migration” of Over One Trillion Yuan Deposits, Why Are Funds Flowing to Insurance?

Experts analyze that this round of deposit relocation to insurance is due to falling interest rates and residents’ demand for hedging, which brings not only premium and long-term funding opportunities to the insurance industry, but also multiple challenges such as liabilities and liquidity. If the interest rate hike cycle subsequently enters, we need to focus on preventing and controlling policy loan cash flow risks.

Text | Ding Yan, researcher at Caijing

Editor｜Yuan Man

2.85%和1.7%, these two numbers are the same three-year bank deposit, separated byInterest rate for three years.

Xu Li, who lives in Huangpu District, Shanghai, hurried to a bank branch recently. She found that a time deposit she bought three years ago had reached the renewal point. But when she arrived at the bank counter, she discovered,The money she saved three years ago30Ten thousand yuan deposit, the interest rate is still there2.85%，現在Interest rates drop directly to1.7%, in addition to the interest being nearly halved, you still need to wait for the bank’s quota to renew your three-year deposit.

2026年是High interest fixed deposit“到期大年”，像There are countless savers like Xu Li whose deposits have expired. What made Xu Li even more anxious was that the bank’s wealth management manager bluntly told her that deposit interest rates would most likely continue to fall in the future. This means that even if this time she follows1.7%If interest rates are kept for another three years, they will still face the risk of another interest rate cut in the future. She couldn’t help but wonder, in a low interest rate environment, how can ordinary people lock in their income?

Judging from the current overall trend, residents’ deposits are being diverted from banks to the non-bank system. According to data disclosed by the central bank,2026Household deposits increased in the first half of the year7.58trillion yuan, less than the same period last year3.19Trillion yuan, the amount of shortfall hit the highest level in the past decade; deposits of non-banking financial institutions increased4.65trillion yuan, an increase year-on-year2.1萬億元。

其中，Insurance is one of the core carriers of this round of capital relocation.. According to CICC estimates,2026In the first half of the year, the largest net inflow of residents’ funds was insurance.，達2.2trillion yuan, followed by private equity funds1.3Trillions of yuan, stock inflows0.9Trillion yuan. From the perspective of insurance premium growth,2026In the first half of the year, the original insurance premium income of the insurance industry was3.86萬億元, year-on-year growth3.3%；其中，人身險Original insurance premium income is approx.2.87trillion yuan, year-on-year growth3.6%。

“The move of bank deposits to the insurance industry is just the beginning.”A senior executive of a small and medium-sized insurance company told Caijing that the insurance industry has taken the initiative to undertake this wave of wealth management because after entering the interest rate cut channel, the long-term and service diversity of insurance wealth management have become more prominent.“報行合一”It also strengthens the status of the bancassurance channel. The insurance industry’s main corresponding measures include: first, revising product design and sales logic, while increasing the proportion of participating insurance; second, compliantly increasing a series of services such as pension, care, medical, and trust; third, focusing on asset-liability matching, including income, term, track, etc.

Wang Guojun, a professor at the School of Insurance at the University of International Business and Economics, said that the current round of deposit transfers to insurance stems from falling interest rates and residents’ demand for hedging. He believes that this brings not only premium and long-term funding opportunities to the insurance industry, but also multiple challenges such as liabilities, misleading sales, capital, and liquidity. If the interest rate hike cycle subsequently enters, it is necessary to focus on preventing and controlling policy loan cash flow risks.

When a large amount of funds migrate from banks to the insurance industry,Regulators are also taking action simultaneously to block risk points.10Around the middle of the month, it is the time when various life insurance companies are getting off to a good start.Financial regulatory bureaus in many places issued “About the Development of“快返型”Notice on product inspection and rectification”,Remove some high-risk items from the shelves產品，And insurance companies are not allowed to report第三The cash value of the policy at the end of each policy year exceeds the premium paid新產品。

Hedging capital flows: insurance

Against the background of structural adjustments in the real estate market and ups and downs of the stock market, a large number of investors are looking for safe havens for their funds.

2026In this year, Fang Yuanqing also had a bank deposit that matured. He is currently considering how to invest. Capital preservation and stability are his consistent investment principles. but,10月18When he went to the bank counter for consultation that day, he found that when he took capital preservation as his financial management goal, the only investment products he could choose were bank deposits and insurance products. The three-year bank deposit interest rate was1.55%, while insurance products1.75%The guaranteed interest rate is superimposed on dividends,六Yield to maturity after year預計爲年化2.4%。

After careful consideration, Fang Yuanqing chose a participating insurance company from a large listed insurance company. heThe choice is a vivid footnote in the era of low interest rates.

2026It is a high-interest fixed deposit every year.“到期大年”, according to calculations released by many securities companies, the medium and long-term deposits that will mature this year are about40萬億元-60Between trillions of dollars.Wang Jian, chief analyst of the banking industry at Guosen Securities, said in a report that in the first quarter of this year, non-bank deposits increased by approximately2.3trillion yuan, at a historically high level. In terms of allocation direction, insurance products have become an important direction for attracting funds due to their interest rate advantage over deposits and the channels of banks.1月-2Monthly premium income hit a multi-year high.

Why do residents’ deposits flow into insurance? An industry insider who has been involved in the bancassurance channel for many years told Caijing that the core driving force for this round of deposit relocation is not insurance. He analyzed that, first of all, banks haveIncrease the demand for mid-term income and increase the sales of non-deposit products; secondly, with the adjustment of real estate structure, the income of other financial products is not guaranteed, and ordinary investors still hope to protect their capital, so the proportion of insurance products has gradually increased in recent years; in addition, from the perspective of insurance companies themselves,“報行合一”Later, driven by policies, many companies actively promoted the development of bancassurance channels.

Chen Dongmei, associate professor at the Department of Risk Management and Insurance at Fudan University, believes that depositsThe move is due to the concentrated maturity of high-interest fixed deposits coupled with falling interest rates. The core driver of residents is the scarcity of certainty under low interest rates. As the undertaking party, insurance mainly relies on bancassurance channels to sell products and savings products with dividends, which not only reduces the rigid liability costs of insurance companies, but also retains the flexibility of earnings. Compared with financial management, the advantage of insurance is that it has a long duration and can lock in returns; its shortcomings are poor liquidity and no guarantee of dividends. In addition to financial management functions, dividendsThe unique institutional functions of savings insurance include death protection and directional inheritance of wealth.

However, despite the decline in bank deposit interest rates, deposit relocation is real, but it is not a large-scale migration.本輪銀行The decline in deposit interest rates began2022年。2022年4In March, the central bank guided the market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism to establish a market-based adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates, and the linkage between bank deposit interest rates and market interest rates was further strengthened. Since then, as the center of market interest rates has continued to move downward, large banks have proactively adjusted their deposit listing interest rates many times.

From the perspective of actual data,The overall customer retention rate in the context of bank deposit relocation is still at a high level. MultipleBank management is2026It was mentioned at the mid-year results meeting that the retention rate after maturity of deposits is relatively high, and most of the retention rates are90%above. Zhou Wanfu, vice president of the Bank of Communications, said that the bank’s retention rate of time deposits after maturity remains at90%above. The risk appetite of time deposit customers is generally stable. Even when interest rates are very low, they still tend to keep their funds in banks, thinking that this is a safe choice.

Transformation: The main undertaking of participating insurance

In recent years, the insurance industry has taken the initiative to transform in terms of products, funds, channels, etc., and has taken on this wave of diversion of residents’ wealth.

First of all, from the product side,Participating insurance returns“C位”，Become the number one growth engine. This is not an overnight result. As early as2023In the second half of the year, the downward trend in interest rates has become the consensus of the entire industry, the craze for incremental whole life insurance products has gradually receded, and insurance companies have accelerated their product strategy switch to participating insurance. In the same year, after two interest rate cuts, the growth rate of residents’ deposits dropped significantly, the growth rate of non-bank deposits increased, and signs of relocation began to appear.

當2025年-2026Fixed deposits with high annual interest rates are all due to mature at a rapid pace, and the relocation of bank deposits is accelerating. After two years of development, the insurance industry’s main products, dividend-type savings life insurance (including dividend annuities, dividend-increasing whole life insurance, etc.), are well positioned to handle this wave of bank deposit relocations.

Why is participating insurance taken as the main insurance type?？The essence of participating insurance是將收益拆成“保證+浮動”兩部分，保證利益To determine income寫進insurance contract,Not affected by market fluctuations；The floating part is linked to the investment and operating results of the dividend account，This part of the income is volatile,Derived from the distributable surplus generated by the actual operations of the insurance company。According to regulatory requirements, the proportion allocated to policyholders shall not be lower than the distributable surplus70%。

For the insurance industry, the transition to participating insurance in recent years has not been easy.Fu Yuyan, chief actuary of Cigna Life Insurance, once said that based on foreign experience, after the insurance company transforms into participating insurance, it needs to further test the comprehensive operating capabilities and operating efficiency of the entire company.“The transformation process will be more painful, because we not only require channel transformation, but also empower channels, educate customers, and even communicate with management and shareholders during the transformation process, and reduce some indicator requirements during the transformation.”

It is understood that in recent years, the system has promoted this“難而正確”In order to carry out the work, some large listed insurance companies have specially set up participating insurance transformation leading groups led by senior executives, and have specially set up asset-liability linkage and front-line and front-line coordination.“Special class on promoting sales of participating insurance”和“Dividend account management special class”, to promote the transformation of participating insurance products in an integrated manner.

From the perspective of transformation effectiveness,According to data from the Insurance Association of China,2026In the first half of the year, the original insurance premium income of personal insurance companies was approximately2.87trillion yuan, with a growth rate of3.6%, a new low in the past three years. But among them, the key driving factor is the rapid growth of participating insurance. The original insurance premium income of participating insurance has exceeded one trillion yuan, reaching10126billion, a significant year-on-year increase94.4%. Based on this calculation, in the first half of this year, participating insurance has exceeded the total premium of personal insurance.35%, becoming the largest growth engine.

圖片：AITool assistance)

According to an industry insider資深人士透露，今年前9months, the insurance industry’s regular premiums are3218billion, a year-on-year decrease12%, expected to have negative growth throughout the year10%左右，但9Monthly bancassurance channel regular premiums202billion, a year-on-year increase of up to217%, month-on-month growth17%。8月躉交290billion, a year-on-year increase317%, month-on-month growth15%。

Secondly, from a financial perspective,“長錢長投”system reform from2024Arriving in the second half of the year2025Focus on landing in the year,2026The year has entered a period of deepening implementation.

在核心的In terms of reform of the assessment mechanism,2025年1In September, six departments including the Central Financial Services Office, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued the “Implementation Plan on Promoting the Entry of Medium and Long-term Funds into the Market”, clarifying the comprehensive implementation of the operating performance of state-owned insurance companies.3For long-term assessment of more than 10 years, the weight of the return on net assets in the current year shall not be higher than30%，3年-5The annual cycle indicator weight is not less than60%。同年7月，The Ministry of Finance further issued the “On Guiding Long-term and Steady Investment of Insurance Funds”Notice on Further Strengthening the Long-term Assessment of State-owned Commercial Insurance Companies”, pushing the long-term assessment one step further: Newly added5Annual cycle assessment indicators,3年、5The total annual cycle indicator weight is increased to70%, when the annual weight drops to30%。

The floodgates of equity investment are also opening simultaneously.2025年4In March, the State Administration of Financial Supervision raised the upper limit of equity asset allocation ratio, simplified the grade standards, and raised the upper limit of equity asset proportion corresponding to the solvency adequacy ratio of some grades.5percentage points, the highest level was raised to50%。

However, the proportion of equity investment is liberalized, and solvency constraints remain.2025年12In March, the Financial Supervisory Authority issued the Notice on Adjusting the Risk Factors of Insurance Companies’ Related Businesses, implementing a differential downward adjustment to the risk factors of stock investment:3年的滬深300Constituent stocks, CSI dividends are low100The risk factors of constituent stocks are from0.3降至0.27, the position will exceed2The risk factors of common stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2018 have increased from0.4降至0.36。

In addition, in terms of channels,2023年8Monthly bancassurance channel“報行合一”Since its implementation, the reduction in expense ratio has led to a significant recovery in the value ratio of bancassurance business; overlay2024年5Monthly supervision documents are released“1+3”Branch limit (each branch of a commercial bank can only be connected with no more than3After two insurance companies launched insurance agency business cooperation), leading companies vigorously developed bancassurance channels, and the market share of the leading bancassurance channels continued to increase.

監管吹哨：“快返型”產品下架

This capital migration of over one trillion yuan,It undoubtedly means opportunities for the insurance industry, which has become an important carrier of residents’ wealth management.

Analyst, Bank of America Global ResearchMichael LiThe magnitude of this fund was calculated in the report:2025The combined first-year premiums of Ping An Life Insurance and China Life Insurance are approximately4000100 million yuan, the first-year premium of the entire industry is approximately1One trillion yuan is the base number. If there are more5000100 million yuan of deposit funds will flow into insurance, and the corresponding increase in life insurance sales will be considerable.

However, just as the sales of insurance products over the counter at banks were in full swing, the regulatory authorities issued a document, blowing the mid-term whistle for this round of deposit relocation, and this time slot coincided with the insurance industry’s2027年“開門紅”啓幕。

10Around mid-month, financial regulatory bureaus in many places required personal insurance companies to“快返型”Products were investigated and rectified. Among them, the Shanghai Financial Regulatory Bureau issued the “About the Development of Personal Insurance Companies within its jurisdiction”“快返型”“Notice on Product Investigation and Rectification” pointed out that recently, during product supervision review, it was found that some companies in the industry were paying during the development of bancassurance channels.3Year, insurance period6Years of ordinary and participating endowment insurance, etc.“快返型”The product has the problem of deliberately lowering the actuarial expense assumptions, and the cash value return time is short. Using such products to offset the scale involves long-term risks and short-term risks.

“快返型”產品指的是Products whose cash value can exceed the premiums paid in a short period of time are currently on the market with premiums paidOrdinary and participating endowment insurances with 3 years and 6 years insurance period are typical representative forms. The core selling point is that the cash value at the end of the third policy year can exceed the premium paid, achieving “three-year capital recovery”.

For insurance companies，Operating the above products faces many potential risks.An industry veteran analyzed that, first of all,The insurance period of quick-return products is short, and the long-term stable value investment concept requires that the funds on the liability side of the insurance company should be allocated with matching long-term assets. Long-term insurance and short-term insurance will inevitably lead to shortening of liability duration and mismatch between liability and asset maturities. Once the interest rate environment changes or there are concentrated surrenders, the company’s cash flow will be under greater pressure and it will face liquidity pressure.

Secondly, in the context of the current market’s continued decline in reinvestment returns and the continued compression of non-standard asset returns, it is difficult to cover the guaranteed returns promised by insurance policies with real investment returns alone, and interest rate losses are likely to occur in the long run. The other is“報行不一”compliance risks.“快返型”The product is designed with deliberately low actuarial assumptions. Some insurance companies lower the actuarial expense assumptions during filing to increase the level of cash value; once the actual channel expenses are higher than the filing assumptions, it will constitute a“報行不一”, touching the regulatory red line.

From an investor’s perspective, the core risk of purchasing insurance-related products lies in the mismatch between income expectations and product essence. The insured is subject to“3年回本”The rhetoric is attractive, and insurance products are often compared to bank fixed deposits and short-term financial products. If the policyholder holds the policy until the6At maturity, during a downward interest rate cycle, the actual rate of return may be significantly lower than expected at the time of insurance purchase. In addition, the dividend part of participating products is also uncertain, and policyholders may face“There is a big gap between demonstration income and actual income”problem. In short,“快返型”Products often cause policyholders to misalign their income with expectations and fall into rights protection dilemmas.

The above-mentioned senior actuaries in the industry said that the above-mentioned new regulations will affect the insurance industry2027年“開門紅”pace, compressing the scale of bancassurance channels, and may even affect the cash flow of some small insurance companies. According to Caijing’s visit to a joint-stock bank outlet, quick-return annuity products will gradually be cleared, and some short-term insurance products are expected to be sold out in10月23日下架。

The market is paying attention. As one of the core undertakers of this round of bank deposit relocation, what other risks does the insurance industry need to pay attention to? Chen Dongmei reminded that this round of bank deposit relocation is very important to the insurance industry.The opportunity is that premiums will jump, but the risk is that the return rate on the asset side is difficult以Match liability costs. If the interest rate hike cycle enters in the future, the main problem will not be the risk of interest rate losses, but the decline in product attractiveness and lower than expected dividends, which will lead to insurance surrenders. Insurance companies need to match assets and liabilities, balance the three differences, and eliminate misleading sales through bancassurance channels.

(Xu Li and Fang Yuanqing are pseudonyms in the article)

Editor | Wang Yi