Li Bin pledged part of Weilai’s most valuable wealth to Geely

Produced by Huxiu Automobile Group

Author｜Yang Jie

Title picture | Photographed by Tiger Sniff

On September 28, 2026, NIO and Geely Holding Group officially signed an agreement: Geely used 100% of Yiyi Internet Technology and 640 million yuan in cash to subscribe for the newly issued equity of NIO Energy and obtain 30% of the shares. NIO’s shareholding was reduced to 63.6%, and NIO Energy’s post-investment valuation was approximately 16 billion yuan. At the same time, NIO used cash to subscribe for 10% of the equity of Haohan Energy, a subsidiary of Geely, and the charging networks of both parties are fully interconnected.

Li Bin pledged part of NIO’s most valuable assets, and the power exchange network built in 11 years gave way to the position of the largest external shareholder.The bet is whether power swapping can transform from “Nio’s moat” into “the infrastructure of China’s automobile industry”; the bet is whether the operating traffic flow brought by Geely can fill the loss hole of the power swap station; the bet is that after NIO transfers 30% of its control rights, the brand premium and user trust will not be lost along with it.

This is a no-retreat deal.

Previously, Weilai’s power swap alliance signed contracts with seven car companies and had zero mass production for two years. The agreed traffic volume became a blank check. Geely was the first to really end up. Li Bin had no reason to refuse and no capital to refuse.

The bet has been placed. But before looking at the trump cards, three accounts need to be settled:Why Nio must sell, how much traffic Geely brings is worth, and how far away from the break-even line will the power swap network be after this deal.

Why you must sell 30%

The economics of NIO’s own power swap stations are under significant pressure. The comprehensive implementation cost of a single fourth-generation power-swapping station is about 2 million yuan. CFO Qu Yu said that a single station can break even if it operates 60 to 70 times a day, while a fifth-generation station can push the balance point to about 45 times.

But the reality is that during peak periods, there are about 30 times. On average, the equipment utilization rate of a large number of third- and fourth-tier city sites is less than 7%.The gap between the balance of payments and the actual data is the real money that Weilai has to fill every year.

Overview of the development of the power swap alliance; Huxiu Mapping

It’s not like Li Bin never thought of asking others to share the burden. As early as November 2023, Changan was the first to sign a contract with the NIO Power Swap Alliance, followed by Geely, Chery, JAC, GAC, Lotus, and China FAW. 7 car companies, the lineup is luxurious enough.

But by 2026, none of the seven partners will have mass-produced battery-swap models. What the alliance signed was a “cooperation agreement”, not a “commitment to build a car.”

The alliance was more of a public relations statement than a business contract from the start.Those who sign have no obligation to build cars, those who build cars do not promise sales, and those with poor sales will not lose money. More car companies are unwilling to help NIO increase the utilization rate of battery swap stations unless they become shareholders of a community of interests.

This is the fundamental reason why Weilai must sell 30%: the “agreed traffic” of the power exchange alliance cannot be cashed into real orders. Only equity binding can turn allies into a community of interests. Geely was the first to really end up, and it was also the first to exchange real money and hard assets for equity.

When talking about the prospects of cooperation, Li Bin said:

“It is expected that the power demand of NIO’s battery swap network will exceed 10 billion kilowatt-hours in 2030. As the scale of the battery swap network expands, the charging and swap infrastructure will accelerate its integration into the new energy system; as innovative energy storage facilities, battery swap stations have great value in peak and frequency regulation.”

It can be seen that the cooperation between NIO and Geely marks a new stage in the field of new energy vehicle energy replenishment from separate operations to resource integration. But in Huxiu’s view, the essence of this cooperation is to complete resource integration on the eve of the industry’s clearing out and turn each’s “sunk costs” into the other’s “strategic assets.”

Geely is no ordinary ally

In this cooperation, Geely’s Yiyi Internet has deployed 446 power swap stations by the end of 2025, with a total of 38.6 million power swaps, and the highest number of power swaps per station in a single day has reached 600 times.Behind the huge data is that Cao Cao Travel has more than 37,000 battery-swap customized vehicles in 31 cities, making it the largest customized fleet of its kind in China.

Development prospects after cooperation; Tiger sniff mapping

You must know that the battery replacement frequency of commercial vehicles is nearly 10 times that of private vehicles. The daily demand for battery swapping generated by the Caocao fleet of 37,000 vehicles is equivalent to injecting a high-concentration “traffic stimulant” into the NIO battery swapping station.

There are 37,000 operating vehicles, and based on an average daily battery replacement of 1.2 to 1.5 times, the demand for battery replacement is approximately 44,000 to 55,000 times a day. Yiyi Internet currently has 446 battery swap stations, which means that a single station undertakes about 100 to 125 times a day, which has exceeded the break-even line of 45 times for NIO’s fifth-generation stations.

However, not all of this traffic can be imported into the NIO network. The cities covered by Yiyi Internet include Chongqing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Tianjin, which happen to be the urban agglomerations with the highest density of NIO car owners.

After the networks of both parties are interconnected, the power exchange needs of Cao Cao’s fleet will be prioritized at Yiyi’s existing sites. Only in areas where Yiyi’s sites have insufficient coverage, it may overflow to the NIO network.

NIO Energy’s post-investment valuation is RMB 16 billion, and Yiyi Internet’s 446 battery swap stations are roughly calculated based on the fifth-generation station cost of RMB 1 million per station, and the replacement cost exceeds RMB 440 million, adding 37,000 locked-in users and a single station’s maximum daily operation intensity of 600 times.

It can be seen that what Geely has produced is a hard asset that can immediately improve the utilization report of battery swap stations.

虎嗅制圖

But having good assets does not mean that the transaction structure is favorable to NIO. There are two details in the transaction structure that are more worthy of consideration than the 30% shareholding ratio.

• First, Geely’s shareholding is linked to operating milestones, and if its operating performance fails to meet expectations, its shareholding may be reduced to no less than 20%.

• Second, Geely was granted an option to add an additional 640 million yuan in cash within two years after delivery, raising its shareholding to 34%, while NIO’s shareholding dropped to 60%.

The milestone link is NIO’s protection clause, and the additional option is Geely’s insurance clause. The existence of two clauses at the same time shows that neither party is fully sure of the effectiveness of the cooperation.

In essence, this is a prenuptial agreement with a gambling nature: get the certificate first, make more money if you are doing well, and reduce your shares if you are not doing well.

What Geely has obtained is a structure with a bottom line on the downside and options on the upside. The cooperation effect is good, Geely added 640 million to increase the share to 34%; the cooperation effect is poor, Geely’s lower shareholding limit is locked at 20%, and losses are limited.

In other words, NIO bears all execution risks of network integration, and Geely reserves the right to increase chips or stop loss and exit at any time. Rather than being a contented ally, Geely has become a structural participant that also holds equity, may even develop competing models, and has exit clauses.

Can battery replacement break even?

To judge whether this transaction can transform NIO’s power exchange network from a “loss-making asset” to a “positive cash flow infrastructure”, three scenarios need to be calculated.

Conservative scenario:

Assuming that Yiyi Internet’s operating traffic is only digested at the existing 446 stations, it will hardly increase the network of NIO’s 4,126 battery swap stations. NIO’s battery swap stations maintain an average daily peak level of more than 30 times, and the utilization rate in third- and fourth-tier cities continues to be below 7%. The daily average number of battery replacements at a single station is about 32 times, which is far below the break-even line of 45 times. The power swap network is still in a state of bleeding, and Weilai needs to continue to invest billions of yuan every year to fill the gap.

Neutral scenario:

Assume that after Yiyi Internet and NIO Network are interconnected, Cao Cao’s fleet will overflow into NIO Network in areas where Yiyi’s site coverage is insufficient. At the same time, Geely’s C-end battery-swap model will be on the market but sales will be moderate, bringing some growth in private cars. The average number of battery swaps per day at NIO’s power swap stations has increased from more than 30 times to about 40 times, approaching but not yet breaking through the 45 times break-even line. The cash flow gap of the power swap network has narrowed, but Nio Energy still needs to pass the energy business (Power trading, peak load regulation and frequency regulation) cross-subsidization.

Optimistic scenario:

Assuming that Geely’s C-end battery-swapping models are mass-produced and launched and sales are stable, Cao Cao’s fleet traffic is fully connected, and other brands of battery-swapping models begin mass production based on NIO standards. The average daily number of power swaps at NIO’s power swap station has exceeded the break-even line 45 times, and the power swap network has changed from a “loss-making asset” to a “positive cash flow infrastructure.” Li Bin made the right bet, and what he got was better valuation and user reputation.

The watershed between the three scenarios lies in whether Geely’s C-end battery-swap models can be mass-produced. The agreement stipulates,The two parties will jointly build unified C-end battery swapping technologies and standards, Geely will develop C-end battery swapping models, and NIO Energy will provide services.

虎嗅制圖

In fact, Geely is not a novice in the field of battery swapping. The models previously served by Yiyi Internet include Cao Cao 60, Maple Leaf 80v, and Rui Lan 9, all of which are targeted at the B-end operating market. However, sales of the Ruilan brand are poor, and the market space for B-end battery-swapping models is narrowing. Geely’s shift to the C-end is an inevitable choice.

However, if Geely launches a C-end electric vehicle with a range of 150,000 to 200,000 yuan based on NIO’s battery swap standards, it will directly enter the target market of NIO’s related sub-brand Letao. Even though Letao still has a series of self-developed technology empowerment, it may also face new challenges.

Know that Geely has sufficient cost control capabilities and channel advantages in this price band. If Geely plugs the replacement model into the galactic channel and uses Weilai’s power exchange network as a selling point, it may achieve a higher breakthrough.

In other words, NIO is using the power of shareholders to expand the battery swap market, and it is also using its own infrastructure to help shareholders grab share of the mass market.

Even if it’s profitable, then what?

This is the most overlooked underlying issue of the entire deal: the B-end closed fleet validates a vertically integrated model, not a cross-brand open platform.

The 37,000 Cao Cao fleet brought by Geely is B-side traffic that has been locked, closed, and deeply bound to Geely’s ecology. These flows can improve NIO’s asset utilization, but they do not prove that power swapping has become industry infrastructure.

A group photo of the senior management teams of both parties; Source: NIO Weibo

The essential attributes of infrastructure are openness and cross-brand versatility.A power exchange network that only serves its own fleet is more like an internal gas station within a company, and is still far from an open market from “public infrastructure”.

To prove the industry infrastructure attributes of power exchange, three conditions need to be established at the same time:Geely’s C-end battery-swapping models are in mass production and sales are stable; other brands’ mass-produced battery-swapping models based on NIO standards continue to be connected; non-affiliated fleets have begun to use NIO’s energy network.

Currently, none of these three conditions have been achieved. Geely’s C-end battery-swap models have not yet been mass-produced, and other brands’ battery-swappable models have zero mass production, and unaffiliated fleets are out of the question.

In addition, the reaction of Weilai car owners to corresponding cooperation matters is also worth focusing on.

Although the agreement clearly states that “operating vehicles and private vehicles do not share batteries”, and technical-level operating vehicles have an independent battery standard system, “no sharing of batteries” does not mean “no competitive resources”.

At present, NIO’s high-speed battery swapping stations are a safe zone for private car users, because operating vehicles rarely use expressways to swap batteries over long distances.

However, at the urban layout level, when NIO Energy needs to allocate construction budgets, site selection priorities, and battery asset management resources between private car exclusive networks and operating vehicle networks, operating vehicle sites with higher capital efficiency will naturally have an advantage in the internal ranking.

Voices of some car owners on NIO APP

NIO car owners pay a brand premium for “exclusive services”. What users buy is not just a car, but long-term certainty composed of battery replacement, services, user community and brand trust.When 37,000 operating vehicles with daily high-intensity battery swapping are connected to the NIO energy system, the margins of certainty begin to loosen. It’s not that exclusive sites are being directly occupied, but that the value of the “exclusive” label itself is declining.

NIO’s most valuable asset has always been user trust. When car owners find that more and more online ride-hailing services from Cao Cao are starting to swap batteries, and when exclusive services need to share core city site resources with operating vehicles, the psychological basis for brand premiums will be easily shaken.

More importantly, this fluctuation will not be reflected in the sales report, but will be reflected in the repurchase rate and referral rate of old car owners.

Returning to the question at the beginning, there is only one core proposition in Li Bin’s bet: whether the scale effect of battery swapping can be filled by enough external vehicles before NIO can’t sustain it alone.

If the power-swapping network can really turn from a loss-making asset into a positive cash flow infrastructure, then Li Bin will bet on the right, and what he will get is better valuation and user reputation.

If the sales of Geely’s battery-swap models fall short of expectations, NIO’s control over the battery-swap network will decline after transferring 30% of its equity, and the brand premium will continue to be diluted. Then, Li Bin made a wrong bet, and the price he paid was that NIO’s deepest moat was repriced.

Geely’s traffic can save utilization, but not publicity. Whether battery swapping can be upgraded to an infrastructure for the new energy industry does not depend on how many companies Weilai has signed, but how many companies are willing to create battery swapping products for the consumer market and allow users to accept this model.