Mid-Autumn Festival Wine Market Observation: Wine merchants reported that “sales volume fell by half year-on-year”, and the gift price was concentrated at 200

Produced by Sohu Finance

Author丨Chai Xinyang

Editor丨Li Wenxian

The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching, but the liquor industry has not been waiting for the long-awaited peak season.

Since August, the wholesale prices of major single products of leading famous liquors such as Feitian Moutai and Eighth Generation Wuliangye have stabilized and rebounded, and the market was once warm. However, the channel side reacted calmly: they did not dare to increase inventory and purchased goods on demand.

A research report from Guojin Securities predicts that this year’s Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day liquor sales will decline by about 20%, which is wider than the decline in the Spring Festival peak sales window, but significantly narrower than the decline from June to July.

Some wine merchants said that this year’s Mid-Autumn Festival sales have been cut by half, and the industry is still hardly optimistic about this year’s liquor market.

Wine merchants are not very enthusiastic about stocking up, demand for banquets and group purchases is weak, and Moutai and Wuliangye have not launched Mid-Autumn Festival gift boxes. Industry reports show that more than 86% of the surveyed companies reported that profit margins have declined, and the liquor industry is experiencing “volume, price and profit”.

The stabilization of wholesale prices cannot hide the “low peak season”, and wine merchants are not very enthusiastic about stocking up.

On the eve of this year’s Mid-Autumn Festival, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai rose from around 1,720 yuan to around 1,750 yuan, while the eighth-generation Wuliangye remained stable at around 830 yuan. However, the rebound in wholesale prices is not an overall rebound.

A survey of dealers in five provinces by GF Securities shows that the current inventory of liquor channels in various places is at a low level, and the inventory of leading brand channels has declined. However, dealers are still cautious about the improvement of the demand side during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, and the start-up pace of the peak season is slower than in previous years.

Jin Songhao, a liquor dealer in Zhengzhou, Henan, pointed out that the wholesale price of famous liquor seems to have rebounded, but it is actually due to the policy changes of individual wineries on a certain product. After the price rise, the sales volume of the product dropped rapidly. Looking at the entire liquor market, most product prices have not rebounded, and there are signs of price drops. He also mentioned that some wineries have cut off dealer rebates. During this Mid-Autumn Festival, wineries did not purchase goods from dealers, but purchased goods according to demand.

“This year’s Mid-Autumn Festival sales dropped by half compared to last year, but sales increased steadily compared with summer sales. Overall, we are not satisfied.” Jin Songhao said.

The meager profits from the wholesale of famous wines are no longer enough to support traditional tobacco stores in stocking up on large quantities at the risk of falling prices. High-quality terminals with group purchasing capabilities will still stock appropriate quantities, but more wine merchants choose to purchase goods at the normal sales pace and no longer gamble on the holiday market.

Li Xuecheng, a wine merchant in Fuyang, Anhui Province, told Sohu Finance that sales are currently proceeding at a normal pace and there is no stocking up. “There is no need to stock up. Firstly, there is not much demand, and secondly, the product is not profitable.” He also said that now there is no longer a huge demand during the holidays, and colleagues around him who are in the famous wine or mass liquor business do not stock up in large quantities.

When stocking up, Jin Songhao is more cautious: “This year, we will stock some of the best-selling products, such as large wineries, well-known products, and direct-operated products; we will not stock the hard-to-sell products.” He mentioned that there is a demand for gifts during the Mid-Autumn Festival, so the sales of well-known brand products have rebounded significantly, and most of the prices are concentrated at 200-700 yuan.

Zhang Wei, another wine merchant in Zhengzhou, said: “The Mid-Autumn Festival is getting shorter and shorter, and the economic downturn has reduced market enthusiasm, and sales volume and sales through traditional channels have declined. In addition, offline channels are also affected by e-commerce platforms and instant retail.”

He believes that terminal stores are not very enthusiastic about stocking up during this Mid-Autumn Festival. First, they have a conservative attitude towards sales, and second, they are worried that prices will fall after the festival, resulting in losses on inventory goods. Moreover, the terminal downturn has been transmitted to manufacturers, and some wineries have realized that they must provide support to dealers. Otherwise, under the current circumstances of meager profits and even inverted prices of famous wines, traditional channels will face collapse. Therefore, it is expected that manufacturers will provide limited support to dealers and survive the fittest, but dealers cannot expect higher profits.

The performance of wine for banquets was mediocre, with some wine merchants saying sales were cut in half

In the past, the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season was often driven by large group purchases, government and business banquets, and concentrated gift giving. Today, these traditional engines are noticeably weaker.

Jin Songhao told Sohu Finance that large group buying merchants have declined significantly this year, reducing by half compared to last year; retail investors’ purchasing power is good, rising by one-third year-on-year, and the ratio of retail investors to group buying is 10:4.

The banquet scene is similarly underwhelming. According to a survey by GF Securities, the overall consumption scene is showing a slow recovery trend. Some regions have reported that the number of banquet scenes such as college entrance banquets and wedding banquets has increased this year, but the number of tables in a single banquet in various regions has declined. It is expected that the banquet scene will have a limited impact on the demand for liquor.

The “2026 China Liquor Market Interim Research Report” pointed out that in the first half of 2026, the recovery of business banquets, wedding banquets and other scenes was less than expected, residents’ income expectations are weak, and non-essential consumer spending has been reduced. Liquor, as an optional consumer product, will bear the brunt.

Li Xuecheng revealed that this year, the sales of Wuliangye Puwu, 1618 and other main banquet products he distributed were obviously under pressure, falling by about half compared with the same period in previous years. In previous years, sales during the peak holiday season could reach more than 1,000 boxes, but during the same period this year, the sales volume was less than 500 boxes. He also said that in the Fuyang market, wine sales of 100-200 yuan are higher.

Li Xuecheng believes that the Mid-Autumn Festival has always been a concentrated period for gift-giving, but current policies have tightened restrictions on behaviors such as receiving gifts, eating and drinking, and gift-giving parties are “unable to send out” and receiving parties “are afraid to accept”. Coupled with the pressure on the macroeconomic environment, related demand has shrunk significantly. Secondly, the demand for banquets is weaker than in previous years, the number of marriages has dropped, and the amount of alcohol consumed at banquets has continued to decline. At the same time, public health awareness has improved, the number of people with high income and high income has increased, and the number of drinkers has decreased. Some young people use cola and soft drinks instead of alcohol at weddings.

Jin Songhao said that sales of banquet wine have dropped significantly, down by about 20% year-on-year. Product concentration is relatively high, among which Honghualang Ten Years, Honghualang Fifteen Years, Maotai 1935, and Jinshiyuan performed relatively well.

“In the banquet scene, the products that consumers choose more include Caitaofang, Yanghe, Ziyingbin, Maotai Prince, Guizhou Daqu, Jiannanchun, Honghualang, Wuliangye, Maotai 1935 and other strong products. Affected by the epidemic, banquet demand will be relatively concentrated from 2023 to 2024, but the overall banquet demand this year is not as good as in previous years.” Zhang Wei mentioned.

Zhang Wei pointed out that the price of a single bottle of 50-200 yuan is still the main price range for people’s consumption. Most cigarette hotels rely on individual customers during weekdays and group purchases during holidays. However, it is generally reported that the consumption power of individual tourists and group purchase units is declining.

The Mid-Autumn Festival liquor gift box market cools down, Moutai and Wuliangye do not launch Mid-Autumn Festival gift boxes

Liquor companies are also adjusting their Mid-Autumn Festival gift box strategies. Gujing Gongjiu launched the “Vintage Original Puree Gu 8 Mid-Autumn Festival Gift Box” for the Mid-Autumn Festival this year, which contained 2 bottles of 500ml Gu 8 and sold for 478 yuan. Last year, the gift box contained two bottles of 500ml Gu 16 and sold for 730 yuan. Moutai and Wuliangye have not launched Mid-Autumn Festival gift boxes either.

In response to this phenomenon, Jin Songhao believes that it is “actually right” for wine companies not to sell Mid-Autumn Festival gift boxes. In his view, the current concept of gift-giving among consumers is weakening, and gift box products have a limited role in stimulating consumption decisions.

Zhang Wei pointed out that consumers nowadays tend to drink wine at the wine table, pay more attention to the essence and quality of products, and are unwilling to pay for fancy gift box packaging. Rational consumption has become the mainstream. For large wine companies, the cost of gift box accessories other than the product itself is not low, and will eventually be added to consumers; at the same time, gift box sets may also impact the price system of normal products on the market, so large wine companies are more cautious about launching gift boxes.

He further judged that some large wine companies may not put much effort into packaging in the future. Liquor companies should adapt to the market and the times, improve their products themselves, and make cost-effective products.

The entire liquor industry is experiencing “volume, price and profit”.

The “2026 China Liquor Market Mid-term Research Report” shows that 57% of the interviewed liquor companies are shrinking in the number of dealers, 61.9% of terminal stores are shrinking in size, 56.6% of dealers and terminal retailers report that price inversion is more serious than last year, and more than 86% of surveyed companies report that profit margins are declining.

The feelings of people in the wine recycling industry are also particularly obvious. A person who has been engaged in the liquor recycling industry for seven years revealed, “Business is getting worse year by year, the public’s consumption power has declined, and the business is close to collapse on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival.”