How far is Netanyahu’s number one rival from taking power?

According to Xinhua News Agency, Jerusalem, November 8, Israeli President Herzog officially authorized Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces and leader of the Integrity Party, to form a new government on the 8th. Eisenkot was given priority to form a cabinet, which is seen as an important development for the opposition seeking to end the long-term rule of current Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Faced with opposition parties with different political stances, differences between Jewish parties and Arab parties, as well as political obstruction from Netanyahu’s camp, how far does Eisenkot still have to go to be in power?

Why Essenkot

Israel implements a parliamentary system, with a total of 120 seats in the parliament. According to Israeli law, the president, after consulting with all parties, authorizes the member of parliament who is most likely to successfully form a government to form a government, rather than necessarily selecting the leader of the largest party in parliament.

According to the official results of the parliamentary election announced on the 4th, the right-wing camp supporting Netanyahu won 53 seats, the opposition camp led by Esencott won 48 seats, and Arab parties that did not belong to any camp won a total of 19 seats.

After the results were announced, Herzog consulted with representatives of various parties on the matter of authorizing the formation of a cabinet. Eisenkot was recommended by 67 MPs and Netanyahu was recommended by 46 MPs. The Union Party of Biblical Judaism, which has seven seats within the right-wing camp, did not recommend Netanyahu. Israeli media analysts believe that Eisenkot’s authorization to form a cabinet was mainly due to the numerical advantage of political forces opposed to Netanyahu’s continued power, rather than the fact that all parties have reached an agreement on co-governance.

Under Israeli law, authorized lawmakers have 28 days to try to form a government, which can be extended by up to 14 days at the president’s discretion. If Eisenkot fails to form a government, Herzog can authorize other lawmakers to form a government. If subsequent legal procedures fail to produce a new government, another parliamentary election may be held.

What are the main obstacles faced?

Analysts believe that the first thing Essenkot needs to solve is how to convert the advantage of being recommended to form a cabinet into the seats needed for coalition governance. Currently, the opposition Jewish parties only have 48 seats, which is still 13 seats short of the 61 seats needed to pass half of the parliament. This means that Eisenkot must win support from Arab political parties, or recruit right-wing and religious parties to join.

The Times of Israel analyzed that although Eisenkot was recommended by 67 members, the number of members who are actually willing to work together to form a government is less than a majority in the parliament. How to win more support without losing existing allies will be one of the biggest challenges facing Essenkot. The newspaper pointed out that Essenkot lacks experience in complex coalition government negotiations, and it remains to be seen whether he can translate political advantages into actual governing power.

The 19 seats of the two Arab parties is a key variable, but many opposition Jewish parties have previously ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with Arab parties. Although the two Arab parties have expressed support for the Esencott camp, this does not mean that the two parties can achieve stable governance cooperation.

Furthermore, there are divisions within the opposition. The Unity Party led by former Prime Minister Bennett, the “Israel is Our Home” Party led by Lieberman, and the Democratic Party have different positions on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, relations between religion and state, and economic and social policies.

Israel’s “New News” website reported that Lieberman has recently relaxed his attitude towards cooperation with ultra-Orthodox religious parties, although he has long opposed these parties’ privileges such as military service exemption. At the same time, Lieberman remains opposed to relying on the support of Arab parties to form a government. This reflects that although the opposition has the same goal of ending Netanyahu’s rule, there are still differences on the specific path to forming a cabinet.

Eisenkot said he would establish a government based on the following four principles: recognizing Israel as a “Jewish democratic state”; accepting the values ​​of the Israeli Declaration of Independence; implementing universal compulsory military service; identifying the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) as a “terrorist organization” and committing to dismantling its military and governance capabilities. Eisenkot said he plans to contact all factions in parliament and recruit political parties and members who agree with the above principles to join the government.

Regarding the Iran issue, Eisenkot said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on October 31: “I will only support military actions that are necessary to deal with direct and urgent threats to Israel and that must be taken before the new government is sworn in.”

What leverage does Netanyahu have?

Some analysts pointed out that although Netanyahu has not been given priority to form a cabinet, Netanyahu still has important political resources. First of all, Likud is still the largest party in parliament, with 53 seats in the right-wing camp. As long as Eisenkot cannot reconcile the differences between the parties, Netanyahu may get the chance to form a government.

Netanyahu will remain prime minister until a new government is formed. He can use the political influence accumulated by his long-term rule to win the support of right-wing and religious parties and question Esencott’s possible reliance on the support of Arab parties to form a cabinet. Netanyahu has repeatedly warned recently that relying on the support of Arab parties to form a government would endanger Israel’s national security.

It is worth noting that the Integrity Party has not completely ruled out the possibility of cooperation with Likud, but there are fundamental differences between the two parties over who should lead the new government. Yael Shumail, a political scientist at Tel Aviv University in Israel, said that Eisenkot’s authorization marks an important change in Israel’s political power structure, but it does not mean that Netanyahu has withdrawn from the political stage. In the coming weeks, whether Eisenkot can break through party differences and win a stable majority will directly determine whether Israel can achieve government change or whether it will fall into a deadlock in forming a cabinet.