Original first release | Golden Horn Finance (ID: F-Jinjiao)

Author | Tian Yu

Changxin Technology’s hundreds of billions of profits failed to stop the stock price from rising and falling.

On October 28, Changxin Technology rode another roller coaster: it rose by more than 4% at the opening, and then the increase narrowed to 0.28%. As of press time, the increase has returned to more than 3%.

But before this rebound, the “Chinese stock king”, whose market value once exceeded 4 trillion yuan, had already caused investors to suffer a month of decline.The company’s stock price dropped from 58.62 yuan on September 23 to an intraday low of 38.75 yuan on October 23, once falling by about one-third.It has only been three months since it was launched.

However, Changxin’s business is amazingly good. In the first three quarters of this year, the company expects revenue to reach 265 billion to 270 billion yuan, more than eight times that of the same period last year; net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 131 billion to 132.5 billion yuan, while it still suffered a loss of 5.28 billion yuan in the same period last year.

In the face of stock price fluctuations, Goldman Sachs still maintains a bullish stance and slightly adjusts the target price from 129 yuan to 130 yuan. If calculated based on the total share capital of approximately 67.884 billion shares, its corresponding market value will reach approximately 8.82 trillion yuan, equivalent to approximately three times the current market value.

Preliminary profit of 100 billion, major international banks see a market value of nearly 9 trillion, but investors are beginning to worry that dividends are about to peak.What can Changxin rely on to convince the market that it will not only make this round of money?

Goldman Sachs sees $9 trillion

Let’s first take a look at Changxin Technology’s explosive performance.

The performance forecast shows that in the first three quarters of 2026, Changxin Technology is expected to achieve revenue of 265 billion yuan to 270 billion yuan, an increase of more than 8 times compared with 32.084 billion yuan in the same period last year; net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 131 billion yuan to 132.5 billion yuan, an explosive counterattack compared with a loss of 5.28 billion yuan in the same period last year.

In fact, in the first half of this year alone, the company’s revenue reached 150.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 873.6%; net profit after non-attributed profits reached 78.79 billion yuan, far exceeding the loss of 2.39 billion yuan in the same period last year.

The speed of making money in this round has not even been able to keep up with the company’s previous expectations.

In May of this year, Changxin predicted in its draft prospectus that its revenue in the first half of the year would be 110 billion to 120 billion yuan, and its net profit after non-attributed profits would be 52 billion to 58 billion yuan. The final financial data significantly exceeded the upper limit of expectations.

The most direct reason is, of course, the increase in memory chip prices. However, no matter how good the market is, you must have suitable products and sufficient production capacity to receive orders. Changxin’s investment over the past few years began to bear fruit just at this time.

Let’s look at the product first.

In the past, Changxin’s revenue mainly relied on the LPDDR series, which are low-power memories commonly found in mobile devices such as smartphones. As AI computing power and data center construction heat up, DDR products for the server, computer and other markets have begun to contribute core increments.

In 2023, DDR product revenue will account for only about 20%; in the first half of this year, this proportion has increased significantly to 46.22%, accounting for nearly half of the country. Changxin’s product line has also further expanded from the mobile device market that it focused on in the past to computers, servers and other fields.

At the same time, the factory’s production capacity is also increasing.

At the end of 2023, the book value of the company’s fixed assets was 84.452 billion yuan, which had increased to 181.563 billion yuan by the end of June this year. In 2025 alone, approximately 52.015 billion yuan of projects under construction in Hefei Phase I, Hefei Phase II and the Beijing production line will be transferred to fixed assets.

The lines are also running fuller. The capacity utilization rate of the company’s 12-inch wafer production line increased from 87.06% in 2023 to 95.73% in 2025, and continued to remain high in the first half of this year.

However, although Changxin Technology’s performance exploded, the market had already expected it to some extent, so the sudden rebound in stock prices may be driven by news.

One of the biggest pieces of news came from Nvidia founder Jensen Huang. On October 22, local time, Huang Renxun said in an interview during the GTC conference in Berlin that by 2029, it is unlikely that the memory chip market will experience oversupply. He also specifically mentioned that Nvidia was the first company in the world to introduce LPDDR memory into the data center, thereby achieving significant energy efficiency improvements, and will continue to use this type of memory in large quantities in the future.

When asked whether Nvidia was considering cooperating with China’s Changxin Storage, Huang Renxun did not directly deny it, but made it clear that he was open to it.

Seller institutions also intensively released strong bullish signals. China Galaxy Securities predicted in a research report in late September that by 2028, Changxin Technology’s annual revenue will exceed 850 billion yuan, and its net profit attributable to the parent company will exceed 560 billion yuan.

Based on its third-quarter performance guidance, Goldman Sachs has further raised the company’s profit forecast from 2026 to 2030. The core basis is the strong release of domestic DRAM demand in China and the structural dividends brought by global customers’ decentralized supply chain. Goldman Sachs fine-tuned Changxin’s target price for the next 12 months to 130 yuan and maintained a “buy” rating.

If calculated based on the total share capital of 67.884 billion shares, the target price of 130 yuan will push up the total market value of Changxin Technology to 8.82 trillion yuan. Calculated with reference to the closing price and exchange rate on October 26, this market value will not only surpass Samsung Electronics and Micron Technology, but will also be equivalent to about 85% of Tesla’s total market value.

At least according to these bullish research reports, Changxin’s most profitable time has not yet arrived.

In addition to cyclical dividends, what else does Changxin have?

The forecast of nearly 9 trillion yuan cannot be calculated based on this year’s profit alone. Changxin needs to convince the market that its current earning power can be maintained for quite some time.

The difficulty is that memory chips happen to be a very cyclical business. Mobile phones and computers sell well, but chips are out of stock and prices rise, so manufacturers spend money to expand production. By the time new production capacity is put into operation, demand may have cooled, inventories have accumulated, prices have fallen, and manufacturers have to reduce production, clear inventories, and wait for the next round of recovery.

The industry winter from 2022 to 2023 is clearly visible. In November 2022, Micron Technology was forced to announce a 20% reduction in DRAM and NAND wafer production. Even global storage giants cannot escape strategic contraction during downturns.

Historically, there has been a clear “three-year cycle” in the DRAM industry. If this rule is followed, the current industry upswing that started in the second half of 2025 may once again face the test of capacity release and demand slowdown around 2028.

The core concern of the market is: when all the expanded production capacity is released in this round, will there be enough downstream demand to absorb the new supply?

But this time, the needs did change.

Unlike the past, which relied solely on the replacement trend of consumer electronics (mobile phones and PCs), the construction of AI infrastructure is injecting massive rigid incremental demand into the storage industry.

The changes on the application side have been quite intuitive.

OpenRouter disclosed that in the week of September 14, 2026, the platform’s Token usage reached 128.4 trillion. Seagate cited IDC’s prediction at the 2025 Investor Day that the amount of data created and copied globally in 2028 will reach 394ZB, equivalent to about 5.5 times the 72ZB in 2020. Parameter loading and real-time reasoning of large AI models both require massive and efficient DRAM as computing power support.

The more direct evidence is the money technology companies are spending.

According to IDC data, global AI infrastructure spending will increase from US$153 billion in 2024 to US$318 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach US$497 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of approximately 56%; by 2030, it is expected to reach US$1.21 trillion, with a compound growth rate of approximately 30% from 2025 to 2030.

The key to this data is thatAfter 2028, investment in AI infrastructure is expected to continue to grow at a rapid pace, which is expected to smooth out the violent fluctuations that occurred in the past when “expansion means excess”. Although prices will still fluctuate in the short term, the duration of this cycle is expected to be significantly extended, thereby rewriting the traditional “three-year cycle law.”

Of course, no business cycle can last forever, whether it is three years or five years, the price of storage chips may eventually usher in adjustment.However, compared to overseas giants such as Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, Changxin Technology also has a special card, that is, domestic substitution.

Under the trend of supply chain security and technological independence and controllability, domestic technology companies have raised the security and stability of the supply chain to unprecedented strategic heights in chip procurement.

In 2023, the six departments proposed to strengthen storage capacity guarantee and promote advanced storage technology innovation. At the same time, the United States has continued to tighten semiconductor export controls since 2022, expanded restrictions to more manufacturing equipment, software tools, HBM and other fields in 2024, and adjusted relevant exemption arrangements for foreign-owned wafer factories in China in 2025.

This allows domestic technology companies to consider, in addition to price and performance, long-term stability of supply when purchasing chips.

As one of the few domestic companies with large-scale DRAM R&D and manufacturing capabilities, Changxin is expected to undertake more domestic substitution needs. Currently, Changxin has cooperated with leading companies such as Alibaba Cloud, ByteDance, Tencent, Lenovo, Xiaomi, vivo, Transsion, Honor, OPPO, etc., and its products cover cloud computing, servers, computers and mobile phones.

For Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, growth mainly comes from global demand expansion, product upgrades and market share competition. In addition to these opportunities, Changxin has an additional layer of domestic alternative space. Even if the industry’s growth rate slows down, it still has the opportunity to ease the pain of the cycle and continue to grow.

This may be the key to Changxin being valued at nearly 9 trillion by Goldman Sachs in this cycle, and even having a market value exceeding that of overseas giants.

The money has been made, but the pursuit is not over yet

Apart from the carnival in the capital market, what determines the ultimate fate of Changxin Technology is still its ability to comprehensively narrow the gap with international giants in advanced processes and cutting-edge technologies.

Changxin has been investing in this technological catch-up for many years.

From 2023 to 2025, the company’s R&D investment will increase from 4.670 billion yuan to 9.593 billion yuan, more than doubling in two years. In the first half of 2026, another 6.859 billion yuan was invested, a year-on-year increase of 87.38%. As of the end of June this year, the company had 4,484 domestic patents, including 3,744 invention patents, and 3,400 overseas patents.

R&D results have also gradually been commercialized. The company’s product line has successfully upgraded from the early relatively mature DDR4 and LPDDR4X to DDR5, LPDDR5X and the new generation LPDDR6, and its market coverage has significantly expanded.

On September 20, 2026, Changxin officially announced that its fifth-generation memory technology platform (G5 platform) has achieved mass production, marking another important technical milestone for the company.

The significance of this upgrade is first reflected in chip output. Based on the same 8Gb chip capacity, the G5 platform can produce at least 50% more chips per wafer than the previous generation. By investing similar wafers, Changxin can produce more chips and has the opportunity to further reduce the manufacturing cost of a single chip.

Underpinning this change is the continuous improvement of manufacturing processes. For example, Changxin has increased the aspect ratio of storage capacitors to 45:1 by adjusting the process flow and introducing new materials. Generally speaking, it means making the capacitor structure deeper in a very narrow space, so that the limited chip area can accommodate more memory cells.

In addition, at this conference, Changxin demonstrated two LPDDR5X mobile memory products based on the G5 platform, with a single capacity of 24Gb, an increase of 50% from the previous generation 16Gb product launched in 2025. The two products use different packaging specifications, namely 496Ball and 245Ball, which can meet the different needs of mid-to-high-end smartphones and portable electronic devices. They have now entered the stage of large-scale mass production.

In the field of high-end mobile storage, Changxin has also made substantial breakthroughs.

On September 7, Changxin announced that LPDDR6 had successfully achieved mass production and commercial use and was first installed on Xiaomi 18 Fold folding screen flagship mobile phone. The product has a package capacity of 16GB and a peak transmission rate of up to 12800Mbps.

However, in the face of the technological evolution of the world’s three major storage giants, Changxin still faces a large intergenerational gap in its technological catch-up.

In terms of advanced processes, Samsung will mass-produce fifth-generation 12-nanometer DRAM as early as May 2023, and will achieve mass production of HBM4 using the sixth-generation 10-nanometer process (introducing a 4-nanometer logic process) in February 2026; SK Hynix and Micron’s sixth-generation technology platforms have also achieved large-scale shipments.

In the commercialization process of LPDDR6, SK Hynix announced in March this year that it had completed the development of LPDDR6, with a transmission rate of 10,700Mbps, and planned to start supply in the second half of the year. Samsung’s 16GB LPDDR6 has been verified by Qualcomm’s new generation Snapdragon platform; Micron has also sent samples to customers.

The gap that deserves more attention is in HBM.

As the core supporting component of AI computing power chips, HBM is the most profitable and fiercely competitive battlefield for overseas giants. From February to the second quarter of this year, Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix have successively announced the realization of large-scale mass production and customer shipment of HBM4.

In contrast,Changxin has not announced the scale mass production and performance contribution data of HBM at the same commercialization stage.

For Changxin Technology, the greatest significance of this round of storage super cycle may be that it has won a valuable “strategic buffer period”: rising chip prices have brought huge profit cash flow, the AI ​​wave has opened up long-term demand space, and domestic substitution has locked in a solid local fundamentals.

With the three forces superimposed, what Changxin gained was not only an immediate burst of performance, but also funds for continued investment in research and development, a market to expand production scale, and the most precious time to catch up with international giants.

References:

Caixin “Changxin Technology’s revenue increased nearly 9 times in the first half of the year, and net profit attributable to the parent company turned a loss to a profit of 78.8 billion yuan”

Caixin “Changxin Technology’s fifth-generation technology platform mass-produces storage density, power consumption, and cost control all improved”

China Galaxy Securities “Changxin Technology: Scarce DRAM manufacturer, domestic substitution breaks through from 0 to 1”