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Heating oil costs could jump 50% this winter and add nearly $900 to bills

The ongoing global energy crunch doesn’t just cause pain at the gas pump: As winter approaches, millions of Americans are facing dramatic spikes in their home heating costs.  

The price of heating oil, which some 4.8 million households, mostly in the Northeast and Alaska, use to heat their homes, is approaching all-time highs as two wars strain global supply. 

Heating oil costs are expected to jump 50% this winter, according to one estimate from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, adding nearly $900 to the average home’s heating bill. The jump is catching consumers by surprise at a time of year when many households fill their tanks for winter, and it’s stoking concern that the high prices will force low-income families to make tough choices between warming their homes and paying for necessities. 

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“There’s a lot of sticker shock,” said Chris Herb, president of the Connecticut Energy Marketers Association, a trade group for local fuel providers and other energy companies in the state. 

Heating oil is nearly identical to diesel, and diesel prices have continued to rise while crude oil prices have plateaued as higher seasonal demand collides with ongoing supply shocks. The Iran War has disrupted exporters’ ability to reliably pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while escalating Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries have limited another key source of supply. 

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Record-high prices

In recent weeks, diesel prices have topped $6.50 a gallon, breaking an all-time record. And across the Northeastern states, heating oil prices have either recently broken or are just short of the highest levels on record. 

“Diesel and heating oil are basically directly tied now,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “Diesel setting all-time records is certainly very worrisome for home heating oil expenses this winter.” 

Heating oil costs are expected to jump 50% this winter, according to one estimate from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

A gallon of heating oil now averages around $5.96 in Maine, where more than half the state relies on oil, the highest share anywhere in the country. Prices are $5.87 in Vermont and $5.91 in Connecticut, meaning 100 gallons, a common minimum order threshold, comes out to nearly $600. 

During the winter months, a typical home relying on heating oil alone can run through 100 gallons in a few weeks. 

Homeowners have been making tough choices: Fill up now, or hold off in hopes that prices fall in the months ahead? Look into alternative heating sources that might be pricey up front but deliver savings in the long-term? Lower the thermostat and shiver to stretch a tank’s worth of oil longer? 

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