By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON, Oct 2 (Reuters) – US job growth likely slowed in September and the unemployment rate is forecast to have been 4.1% for a third straight month, suggesting the labor market remained stable heading into the fourth quarter.
The anticipated moderation would follow a surprise jump in nonfarm payrolls in August, which economists partly attributed to volatility linked to the model the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its closely watched employment report on Friday.
“I am expecting a reaffirmation of the ‘low-hire, low-fire’ American labor market,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “At this point, we’re at full employment, and I think there will be nothing in the jobs report that will cause the Federal Reserve to change its bias from one more hike this year.”
Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 90,000 last month after surging by 162,000 in August, a Reuters survey of economists predicted. Estimates ranged from as low as 35,000 to as high as 180,000. Economists expected August’s job count, which was the largest in five months, to be revised down. The initial payrolls print for August has typically been weak, making this year’s jump an anomaly.
“We suspect that the seasonally adjusted August nonfarm payroll print will be revised down as the BLS extends its seasonal adjustment procedure forward to incorporate the September data,” said Marc Giannoni, chief US economist at Barclays. “The seasonal adjustment significantly exaggerated that month’s employment gain. Had the August nonfarm payroll employment been adjusted with the August 2025 seasonal factors, it would have registered a drop of 74,000 jobs.”
Economists said there were no signs yet that the US-Israel war with Iran was disrupting the labor market. But they expected the growing headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East, including high energy prices and strained supply chains, to start having an impact by the end of this year.
Diesel prices are at record highs and could start to exert pressure beyond the transportation and agricultural sectors. Ongoing tariffs also are a source of concern, with an Institute for Supply Management survey on Thursday showing rising anxiety among manufacturers over the trade war with Canada.
Robust corporate profit growth and resilient domestic demand are for now shielding workers from layoffs. Historically low layoffs account for labor market stability, with hiring at a modest level.
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