Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) will report its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, Sept. 30. As of this writing, shares sit near $928 — down about 7% over the past week and about a quarter below their 52-week peak of $1,255.
A drop like that, two weeks before earnings, can make buying ahead of the report tempting. Should you buy the stock before the numbers arrive?
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There may be less suspense in this report than usual, though. Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter is already over (it ended in early September), and the company already told everyone what to expect.
The real news on Sept. 30 will likely be the guidance that comes with the results. And the memory-price curve underneath that guidance is flattening fast.
Already in the books
Micron guided the quarter on June 24, alongside its fiscal third-quarter results: revenue of $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion, a non-GAAP (adjusted) gross margin of about 86%, and adjusted earnings of $31 per share, plus or minus $1.
Hitting those marks would mean another quarter of records. In the fiscal third quarter (the period ended May 28, 2026), revenue came in at $41.5 billion, up from $23.9 billion the quarter before — and more than quadruple the year-ago period’s $9.3 billion. Adjusted gross margin came in at 84.9%, versus 39% a year before.
But the pace is cooling by Micron’s own math. Revenue jumped about 74% sequentially in the fiscal third quarter, and the $50 billion target implies about 21% growth from there. The earnings-per-share guide of $31 sits about 23% above the fiscal third quarter’s $25.11. The fourth quarter also has an extra week in it (14 weeks versus 13), so the underlying pace is slower still.
That’s still extraordinary for a company this size. The slowdown, though, starts with the price of memory.
Price gains are shrinking fast
Micron’s results this year have been driven by price more than volume. In its latest quarterly filing, the company said fiscal third-quarter DRAM sales rose 67% sequentially, mostly because average selling prices climbed in the low-60% range. Bit shipments (the volume of memory sold) grew only a low-single-digit percentage.
Most of the gains have come in conventional DRAM — the ordinary memory in servers, PCs, and smartphones, rather than the high-bandwidth kind that feeds artificial intelligence (AI) processors.
