Environment · Science

FAO warns new El Niño cycle threatens agriculture across multiple continents

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization identifies the Sahel, Southern Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central America's dry corridor as the highest-risk zones for drought triggered by the emerging El Niño, with over 50% probability of crop and pasture damage in some areas.

• Satellite-based risk assessment covering 41 years of data shows the Sahel, Southern Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central America as the most vulnerable regions for the coming months.
• May 2026 was the second-warmest May on record globally, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the emerging El Niño is expected to amplify extreme weather patterns.
• Smallholder farmers in rain-fed agricultural systems face the highest exposure because they lack irrigation buffers and crop insurance coverage.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has issued a warning that a new El Niño cycle, expected to form in the coming months, could trigger drought and extreme weather across multiple agricultural regions worldwide. The assessment, built on 41 years of satellite imagery, designates the Sahel, Southern Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central America's dry corridor as the highest-risk zones.

The science behind the warning is straightforward: El Niño — a warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures — disrupts global atmospheric circulation patterns. Historical data shows that El Niño events are strongly correlated with reduced rainfall in the Sahel, delayed monsoons in South Asia, and drought in southern Africa and Central America. For regions where over 60% of agriculture is rain-fed, the margin between a normal harvest and crop failure can be measured in weeks of rainfall timing.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that May 2026 was the second-warmest May globally on record, adding a layer of background warming that amplifies El Niño's effects. Warmer baseline temperatures increase evaporation rates, meaning even normal rainfall produces less effective soil moisture for crops.

The knowledge lesson is about layered vulnerability. The regions most at risk are not simply those facing the strongest climate anomaly — they are those where climate exposure intersects with low irrigation coverage, limited crop insurance penetration, weak early-warning infrastructure, and dependence on a single rainy season. A drought forecast is not just a weather story; it is a stress test of agricultural policy, food-distribution logistics, and disaster-preparedness investment.