Climate Science

Scientists Detect a Sharp Acceleration in Global Warming

After removing natural fluctuations, researchers found the planet has warmed at roughly 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years — a significant acceleration compared to the long-term trend.

Global warming is not just continuing — it may be speeding up. A new analysis published in the journal Nature Climate Change shows that the planet's temperature has risen at roughly 0.35 degrees Celsius per decade over the past ten years, a rate significantly faster than the long-term average of about 0.18°C per decade since 1970.

The study, led by researchers at the University of Oxford and the University of Melbourne, used a sophisticated statistical method to separate the human-caused warming signal from natural fluctuations such as El Niño events, volcanic eruptions, and variations in solar activity. Once those natural factors were removed, the underlying warming trend became clearer — and faster than expected.

"The acceleration is real and it is driven by greenhouse gas emissions," said the lead author. "We have been able to show that the recent warming rate is unprecedented in the observational record."

The analysis found that the acceleration is most pronounced in the upper ocean, which absorbs more than 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases. Ocean temperatures in the top 2,000 meters have been rising at an accelerating rate since the 1990s, with the sharpest increase occurring in the past decade.

This acceleration has direct consequences for extreme weather. A faster warming rate means that heatwaves, heavy rainfall events, and droughts are likely to become more intense and occur more frequently than previously projected. The study estimates that the risk of record-breaking heat extremes has increased by roughly 50 percent compared to a scenario without acceleration.

The findings also carry implications for the remaining carbon budget — the amount of CO₂ the world can still emit while keeping warming below 1.5°C or 2°C. If warming is accelerating, the remaining budget shrinks faster than previously estimated, leaving less time for the global energy transition.

Critically, the study found that the acceleration is not caused by any single factor but by the cumulative effect of rising greenhouse gas concentrations and feedback loops such as reduced ice cover and changing cloud patterns. As Arctic sea ice disappears, for example, dark ocean water absorbs more sunlight, amplifying the warming in a self-reinforcing cycle.

The researchers emphasize that the findings are not a reason for despair but a call to action. "Every fraction of a degree matters," they wrote. "The faster the warming, the more urgent the need for deep and rapid emissions reductions."