Scientists say the next 30 to 50 years could offer a crucial opportunity to forecast Antarctic ice loss and prepare for the sea level rise it may cause, according to a new study led by Monash University researcher Dr. Felicity McCormack and published in Nature.
The IPCC has warned that global sea levels could rise by more than two meters by 2100 under high emission scenarios if large parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse. An increase of that scale would put one-quarter of Australian residential properties at risk of flooding and force hundreds of millions of people worldwide to leave their homes.
A key finding is that Antarctic ice loss remains strongly and consistently predictable until around the middle of the century. This means ice sheet models can provide dependable estimates of Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise during the decades most important for adaptation planning.
That confidence weakens toward the end of the 21st century, when physical processes capable of rapidly accelerating ice loss become more likely. Some Antarctic ice rests on bedrock below sea level, and if it begins retreating quickly, the process could become difficult to stop or reverse.
The findings suggest the next three decades represent a meaningful opportunity for climate action. Sea level rise pathways during this period are relatively well constrained, making this window especially important for long-range coastal infrastructure planning.
Key insight: Antarctic ice loss is reliably predictable through about 2050, giving governments a 30-year window for coastal planning; beyond mid-century, rapid ice retreat could make projections much more uncertain; the study was led by Monash University and published in Nature.