Amazon Soy Moratorium Collapse Could Add 1.4 Million Hectares of Deforestation

The unraveling of a landmark voluntary agreement between soy traders is projected to increase Amazon deforestation by 17% over the next decade, with carbon consequences rivaling an entire industrialized nation.

A voluntary pact that for nearly two decades helped shield the Amazon rainforest from soy-driven deforestation has collapsed — and the environmental consequences could be staggering. According to new research published in the journal Science in July 2026, the end of the Amazon Soy Moratorium (ASM) will drive at least 1.4 million hectares (3.5 million acres) of additional deforestation in Brazil over the next ten years, a 17% increase over historical rates.

The carbon emissions from this additional forest loss are estimated to equal the entire annual carbon output of Canada, one of the world's top-emitting nations.

A Historic Agreement Unravels

The Amazon Soy Moratorium was established in 2006 following a Greenpeace campaign that linked major fast-food chains to Amazon deforestation. Under the agreement, the world's largest soy traders — including Cargill, ADM, Bunge, and others — voluntarily pledged not to purchase soybeans grown on land deforested after July 2008. The pact was remarkably successful: soy-linked deforestation in the Amazon dropped to just 1% of new soy expansion within a decade, proving that industry self-regulation could work at scale.

However, in January 2026, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) announced its withdrawal from the moratorium, citing concerns about competitive fairness. Other major traders followed suit. The decision effectively ended one of the world's most effective private-sector conservation agreements.

What the Research Found

The WWF-commissioned study, conducted by an international team of researchers, modeled the deforestation impact of the moratorium's collapse under multiple scenarios. Even the most conservative estimates project at least 1.4 million hectares of additional forest loss. The research considered factors such as land prices, agricultural suitability, and enforcement capacity in the region.

"The Amazon Soy Moratorium was one of the most successful voluntary deforestation commitments in history," said the lead researcher. "Its end represents a major setback for conservation efforts in the Amazon."

Broader Implications

The collapse comes at a critical moment. The Amazon rainforest is approaching a tipping point where deforestation and climate change could trigger large-scale dieback, converting vast areas from carbon sink to carbon source. Indigenous territories, which have served as effective barriers against forest clearing, face increased risk as the regulatory framework weakens.

Conservation groups are calling on importing countries — particularly in the European Union, which recently enacted its own anti-deforestation regulation — to maintain pressure on soy traders through supply-chain legislation. Without the moratorium or an equivalent replacement, the Amazon's future looks significantly more uncertain.